EU needs 'backstop' that works in all eventualities, including a breakdown in future relationship talks at the end of transition.
With no border in Ireland, there "must" logically be checks between NI and GB to protect single market. /2
EU sources say doing this via Article 50 is legal "anathema". Would die in ECJ/5
Maybe there is...sources/experts on both sides discussing.
It goes like this. /6
BUT the EU agrees that as soon as the trade talks begin after Brexit Day, they will create a "parallel backstop" that keeps UK in an identical temporary customs arrangement. /7
And there is no customs border in the Irish Sea.
Well, I note that Sammy Wilson signed the ERG amendment saying no *customs* border, but silent on the regulatory side. /9
Could these be mutually de-dramatised? Listen carefully to both sides red lines, and you might think so.
Push them back to farm/factory? /10
No, not yet. Lots to go wrong. This is blue-sky thinking, for now both sides still sticking to red lines.
Some obvious problems... /12
Brit sources clear this doesn't fly. Can't. Obviously - since if EU/WA backstop kicks in alone, we're back to square one /13
The next one, is what kind of backstop, or 'temporary customs arrangement' are we talking about?
There was lots in the June 7 paper the EU didn't like. /14
Recall we are only talking 'temporary' here. Not endstate. But even so... /16
You can't fix the Withdrawal Agreement issues, without detail on the Future Relationship. Politically one sells the other /18
The options are not good: a general election? retreat to Norway? a 2nd referendum, extend A50? /20