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Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
EU27 draft EUCO conclusions have 5 points/paragraphs.

The first point reaffirms the Withdrawal Agreement & the Political Declaration. "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Pars 2, 3, 4, 5 are in square brackets, meaning haven't been agreed yet.

Par 2: EU27 reiterates wish for "as close as possible a partnership with UK..." "stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after UK withdrawal
Pars 3 underlines that "backstop does not represent a desirable outcome for the Union. The backstop is only intended as an insurance policy to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland...
Par 3. cont. would state that it is the EU's "firm determination" to work speedily on a subsequent agreement that establishes by 31 December 2020 alternative arrangements, so that the backstop will not be triggered
Par 4. if backdrop has to be used, would apply only temporarily unless & until superseded by a subsequent agreement. EU would use best endeavours to negotiate & conclude a subsequent agreement rapidly. Backstop only in place for a short period, as long as strictly necessary
Par 5 would state EU prepared to examine further assurances, but these will not change or contradict withdrawal agreement.

To repeat: pars 2, 3, 4, 5 in square brackets, meaning not approved yet. Understand 5 unlikely at this stage: UK needs to spell out what assurances it seeks
In summary: EU27 will reaffirm, in very simple & clear English, points they have made dozens of times before about backstop (it's an insurance policy they don't even want to use), and will make crystal clear that the withdrawal agreement cannot be change nor contradicted
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More from @AlbertoNardelli see all

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Brexit. Things are getting worse.

1. The withdrawal agreement is needed regardless of the shape of the future relationship. The withdrawal agreement on the table, including the backstop, will not be renegotiated. EU27 cannot be clearer on this point – and this is the key point.
2. Throughout these negotiations, so many problems have been created by N10’s inability & unwillingness to set realistic expectations, explain tradeoffs and communicate clearly. As the PM runs out of road, the confusion over the withdrawal agreement is the latest example
3. The political declaration allows for a full spectrum of future options, but it is not clear what kind of relationship the UK wants. This will require a proper debate on tradeoffs (and years of negotiation). However, whatever that option: you need the withdrawal agreement
Read 7 tweets
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About last night:

1) May went to the meeting seeking legally-binded assurances with half-baked proposals to placate hard Brexiteers & DUP

These have been rejected repeatedly for obvious reasons. Backstop is an insurance policy not “a trap.” Not EU27 problem many MPs ignore this
2) May was asked by several leaders, and, I am told, most emphatically by Chancellor Merkel: 'what is it that you want?'

The prime minister was unable to provide an answer to this question with any precision.
That is where May is at in a nutshell: Nearly two years after triggering article 50, the UK does not have an answer to the question, "what do you want?"

There are also concerns that the UK – across the political spectrum – has no idea what kind of future relationship it wants.
Read 7 tweets
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EUCO draft Brexit conclusions: I understand that paragraph 5 (EU stands ready to examine whether any further assurances can be provided..) has gone.
Par. 1, which wasn't in square brackets, is of course unchanged: "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Par 2 unchanged: EU reiterates wish for 'as close as possible partnership.." 'stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after withdrawal'. Understand 27 discussed starting prep work on future deal as soon as UK ratifies
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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EU Council Conclusions main points: 1/ The EU “stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation.”
The Council reiterates it wishes to establish as close as possible a partnership with the UK in the future. It stands ready to embark on preparations immediately after signature of the WA to ensure that negotiations can start as soon as possible after the UK’s withdrawal.
The Council underlines that the backstop is intended as an insurance policy to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland and ensure the integrity of the Single Market.
Read 11 tweets
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Quick thread on Brexit latest:

1/ Olly Robbins is in town talking to the Task Force. Word is that May wants some kind of declaration clarifying that the backstop won't be needed, that it's temporary etc
2/ So, three key questions: what will the content of the declaration be; what will its legal weight be; and will it be ready in time for the #EUCO on Thursday?
3/ So far sources are reticent about whether a General Affairs Council, which is meeting tomorrow in Brussels anyway, will have a last minute Article 50 formation - but one source says it can be arranged at the last minute (GACs do the work of preparing summits).
Read 12 tweets
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I've been thinking a lot about this argument - that MPs should approve the Withdrawal Agreement as a measure to avoid the possibility of No Deal - and I think it is a serious concern that Remain needs to address properly.

Here's an attempt to. 1/
Note that other excellent commentators have also made this argument, such as @FabianZuleeg. As Fabian (and DAG in the linked piece above) has also pointed out, this is likely to look a more compelling argument to MPs as things get more tense 2/

Despite signals from Tusk and others this week that Brexit can still be stopped if the UK wishes it to be, it’s likely that the message from the #EUCO on the 25th will be that the choice is to agree Withdrawal Agreement as it stands, or reject it. This is also UKGov's stance. 3/
Read 25 tweets
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EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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#EUCO today. Sufficient Progress decision. How did we get here and where do we go? Thread.
1. UK miscalculated EU's unity, inflexibility, popularity among member states and overestimated UK's hand.
2. Unity: all agreed that importance of internal market to EU far outweighs importance of good deal with britain.
Read 7 tweets
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1. Too much is being read in Merkel's #EUCO #Brexit comments. For balance let's see how the German/EU press is reporting today. (Thread)
2. FAZ comment: "The nervousness in the Kingdom is great. And the anger of Brexiteers against the EU is probably even greater."
3. FAZ: "TM assured EU citizens they didn't have to worry about their future status, and tried to set a mark of goodwill for summit" [con't]
Read 19 tweets

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