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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I struggle with FCIs. It really feels as though equities should be an important component, but not sure on the transmission. @BIS_org piece on topic here bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_…
A bit of a disappointment tbh. Nice chart showing FCI in the US with (blue) & w/o (red) equities
And this feels right on the subject of chgs in Q4. Pretty equity-heavy in the US.
But as in convo w/ @tomashirstecon, I do wonder about whether it is wealth effect of owners leading to righting finl conditions or something else.
Seems plausible that sinking stock prices causes snr mgmt to ‘do something!!’ Which could involve deferral of investment, cost cutting.
Seems a simple thing to investigate, but I haven’t read an empirical paper that really looks at the data. Would welcome links.
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More from @toby_n see all

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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
If you couldn't make the Vleighe speech in person, here's a thread.
1. We live in uncertain times is a hackneyed phrase, but feels true right now
Global GDP was doing great but deceleration been the theme since beginning of 2018
3. Two main causes, first the monetary knock-on of off-cycle US fiscal easing, pushing yields and spreads higher (appropriate in US, hurtful for $-funders)
Read 11 tweets
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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Life feels better once you’ve hit 50. cc @M_PaulMcNamara resolutionfoundation.org/publications/h…
Inactivity looks to be an increasing mental strain, but nice to see retirement is generally happy.
London is hard.
Read 4 tweets
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Toby Nangle
@toby_n
Broadbent speech tl;dr
1. Debt growth more important than debt level for growth and finl stability bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/fi…
2. Type of debt and cost of service sorta matters more than stock too
3. Broadbent whips out house price model!! Reckons spread between rental yields and 10y I/L Gilt yield sets scene for next 5yr house px infl (though then caveats to death).
Read 4 tweets

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Will Richardson🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🇳🇴🏴󠁧󠁢he/him/his
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@katiecannon2 @meadwaj @rad_econ @moh_kohn @PatriciaNPino @paulmasonnews Basic central banking, sic, a la Walter Bagehot, it is the lender of last resort at a higher interest rate. Without clearing reserves, the financial system jams up, like in the big bank crash and the interbank lending market liquidity dries and seizes up as...
@katiecannon2 @meadwaj @rad_econ @moh_kohn @PatriciaNPino @paulmasonnews ...no-one knows which banks are safe or are unsustainable because of the high levels of unsustainable private bank debt.
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Paranoid Bull
@paranoidbull
Systemic Risk on the Horizon.

The System is checkmated.

“For now, banks will continue to apply 0% risk weights to sovereign exposures on their balance sheets.” globalbankingandfinance.com/sovereign-risk…
“EU authorities have set a zero risk weight not just to sovereign exposures denominated and funded in the currency of the corresponding Member State, but also to such exposures denominated and funded in the currencies of any other Member State.”
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Political Risk is priced at Zero across Europe.

Systemic Risk is coming.

It cannot be stopped.
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Henrik Zeberg
@HenrikZeberg
#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
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Jae S Um
@jaesunum
1/ Tweetstorm a comin' cuz @IvyBGrey really likes it when I "have a conversation with an article." First of all, super 💯 helpful and useful breakdown of varying #innovation approaches, so everyone trying to do all the innovation things, please read the article, like now thanks.
2/ Is "incremental" a dirty word? No. But to most people it #feels less exciting & flashy than "#disruptive." Yes, I said #feels. Bc most ppl probably will not read Ivy's excellent article or this tweetstorm bc they're not on Twitter. To them all this sounds/#feels like jargon.
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Zet Lorento
@Zetgel24
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Ishtaarth Dalmia
@ishtaarth
I’ve made cosmetic use of Twitter in my 8 years here, barely scratching the surface of what’s possible on it.

To be honest, I’ve never felt it has any value as a microphone *for me*, but I’ve learned a lot on it. So here goes:
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I read more than anyone I know in person, but does this help?
“Your mind is like a compiled program you've lost the source of. It works, but you don't know why.” —@paulg in paulgraham.com/know.html

This thread is to understand the models in my head and where they originate. *THIS IS NOT an essay on Fixing Your Life.
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