Thread by @toby_n

If you couldn't make the Vleighe speech in person, here's a thread.
1. We live in uncertain times is a hackneyed phrase, but feels true right now

Global GDP was doing great but deceleration been the theme since beginning of 2018

3. Two main causes, first the monetary knock-on of off-cycle US fiscal easing, pushing yields and spreads higher (appropriate in US, hurtful for $-funders)

4. Second issue trade wars, that have taken 1% from Chinese and 0.5% from US growth. Coincided with shadow banking deleveraging.

5. Taking down European PMIs too given trade linkages

6. Bad news from here is that we are at peak +ve growth hit from fiscal impulse in the US. Falling steadily from here.

7. On Brexit, Bank reckons it has had a c£40bn cumulative hit, or in bus terms £800m per week so far.

8. Interestingly, households haven't really seen any impact to their own financial situation since EURef

9. And households real consumption growth hasn't missed a beat, even if real incomes hit by import px infl that came from weaker £

10. So where has the hit to UK growth come from? Profound uncertainty among firms around nature of No Deal. Firms have slowed l-term irreversible investing, instead doing s.term (reversible) investing (employment).

Here’s the whole speech if you’re interested. Always thoughtful stuff from Jan. bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2019/ge…