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#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
We are in my opinion in a #Riskoff environment, where #TLT and US #Bonds will do great - but #equities will decline. This will not be change before Fed reenters the stage months from now. We are in the early stages of the deflationary part of the crisis #HZupdates.
Dr. Copper gives an indication of where we are. We are in "early 2008". Currently consolidating in wave 2 before the large drop in wave 3 in #Copper - which will spell #Deflation #Disinflation. The world economy is already slowing fast due to hikes and QT #HZupdates
The deflationary path can also be spotted in inflation gauge #AUDUSD, which is just at the LT-trendline (from 2008). When(!) it breaks - we will see fast drop - again similar to 2008. Last deflationary crunch in Kondratiev's winter #HZupdates
The disinflation / #deflation will be seen in #DXY which will rally up to 107-109. My LT-model remains the same. The strength in USD will be felt globally and will trigger crisis in many currencies. The currency crisis of Kondratiev's winter is about to set in #HZupdates
On Daily #DXY chart - I think this is the count. We may see a small dip/retest of the breakout - but coming weeks/months will give us a strong move up in DXY. Next target for wave 3 is ~101. The wave will be impulsive and USD Bears will capitulate #HZupdates
The strength of #DXY will be seen in #EURUSD as well. We are just at the verge of a larger drop in EUR as wave iii of 3 sets in. My LT-target remains the same = 0.91 probably to be reached late in 2019 #HZupdates
#USD strength will also be seen in #OIL. Some patterns are difficult to identify. This is not one of them. We have an ENDING DIAGONAL - and Oil will after this ST-bounce continue it's path towards and below 23 #deflation #HZupdates
#Gold is back - at least in major banks' calls of price of >1400 and beyond. This is NOT how I see it! Gold will drop strongly in coming #deflationary #disinflationary environment. My LT-target remains same = 750-825 area #HZupdates
#Silver supporting my Gold view. Notice, the LT-trendline broken - now retested and turning. This is NOT the place to be long Silver. My target is ~8.4. Strong decline to set in soon as #deflation / #disinflation sets in #HZupdates
#Europe is in big trouble. #DAX looks really bad. LT-target (2-3 years out) is ~3500. We have bounce at the moment - up to LT-trendline. Soon we will see reversal and decline to ~8600 for our next stop/bounce #HZupdates
Europe is in big trouble. #German and #Italian 10yr #Bonds - showing Bullish and Bearish patterns. This is the #EUCrisis2. Asymmetrical. This will not be solved by some #ECB buying maniac. Imagine so many years of QE and THIS is the result!! #HZupdates
To all my #Danish friends! Stay clear of DK #equities! This is a really bad looking picture for Danish index. We are really close to the beginning of a MAJOR drop! #HZupdates
That is all from #HZupdates 😀Please take care! We have some strong developments right in front of us. Coming months will not be pleasant to experience if you are long #equities
I have sent out my Weekly Update to subscribers. You can purchase this for 75EUR. Please transfer fee to paypal.me/henrikzeberg INCL. Whatsapp no. in comments field and I will send. In the Update you will find my count for SP500 among other. Great opportunities ahead! #HZupdates
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