Thread by @KatariyaPran

The Casino analogy is largely associated with Option Sellers but actually it applies equally to all forms of Successful Trading. At primal level, essence of Successful Trading is very simple- Find an edge or System with Positive Expectancy and let it play out over 100's of Trades

It's slow grinding work. More about hitting many singles and occasionally a home run. It's about being a Dravid and not a Sehwag. The 10% in 20 minute kind of Trades may give you a high but if you keep making them and increasing size along the way- Ruin is inevitable

A few years ago I had the privilege to have a short discussion with Linda Raschke who I consider the worlds best Trader. It emerged that although she is one of the best TA's in the Business, she makes no claim to knowing where the Market will be in any time frame

Her success is based on Trading just 1 Pattern which she has mastered- Flags and Pennants. Even after doing this for years with her skill level, her success Rate is between 40-60%. But that's all she needs to make Millions of Dollars.

I'm somewhat bemused to see people claim or expect systems that will consistently deliver large directional moves with almost 100% accuracy. There's a reason that the word 'edge' is used in conjunction with Trading Systems.

It's a minuscule advantage and not something you can drive a truck thru. There is a lot of hard work to be done before you adopt a System you learn from a successful Trader or read about in a book. Firstly you have to develop conviction in the System.

This can only be done by extensive backtesting thru a variety of scenarios and developing a response to whatever the Market can throw at you- and even after that it will throw you some surprises. The next is to build a Money Management and Position Sizing System around it

After that you need to Trade it in live Markets with small size until it is giving you a Positive Expectancy after which you can increase Size. And yes, it's better to master and Trade just 2-3 Strategies than trying 100 and failing at all.

You will no more become a Master Trader by reading a book or attending a Seminar than you will become a world class Cricketer by taking a few lessons from Sachin Tendulkar or anyone else. And even then your Profits will come as the Casino's does- thru many many well placed Trades

I tried for many years to Trade on the basis of TA but was only moderately successful and unhappy to boot despite reading many many books, training and attending countless Seminars and trying many Strategies.

Looking back I can say that the reason it didn't work for me is that i could not develop the required level of conviction in any System. Deep down there is a part of me that thinks TA is mumbo jumbo😀 despite seeing a lot of evidence that it isn't

Learning to Trade Options is a much simpler process. You don't need to build conviction. It's there in the numbers. When you Trade a Strategy with a 70% POP you know that over a large number of Trades this is what you will get

So the challenge then is to build the auxiliary System around this conviction- that otherwise may take years to develop- and get the other aspects such as RR, Position Sizing, Money Management etc right. This is what I intend to cover in my Seminar.

Thanks to @apeksha02 for directing me to this wonderful Video by my favourite Trader- Linda Raschke..For those who think they can start Trading like Soros after reading a book or attending a seminar, see 31:35 to 34:00- what it takes to develop a Trading System that works for you

Oops. Here's the link

After watching this video, I was struck by how closely what she said mirrored my own experience. I decided to get into full time Trading in 2006. Spent 4 years trying TA based systems. Attended Seminars/Workshops/Programs by Sandeep Wagle, Pristine, OTA, Velez, SMB etc etc

Didn't work. Thought it was down to psychology so consulted with Dr Van Tharp. Finally got into Options around 2010 and studied under Dan Sheridan, Dan Harvey, John Carter, John Locke and of course my mentor Seth Freudberg to whom I credit most of whatever I've achieved

I finally turned fairly consistently Profitable only around 2013 and after that every year has been better in terms of results, satisfaction and reduced stress levels. I've lost count of the amount I spent in discovering a System that worked for me and now spend on improving it

For those who hope to discover the road to riches by attending 1 or even a few seminar and spending a few thousand Rupees I have a simple piece of advice- Give up already.

Becoming a Professional Trader is one of the most difficult undertakings and there is a long, arduous and expensive apprenticeship involved. Definitely not something for the faint hearted.