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@Eusebius The long game strategy you have just recounted does sound conving. However consider the following:
1. The NEC has another 4yrs beyond the election. Half its members benefited from the JZ patronage. They continue to be under his control.
1. The NEC has another 4yrs beyond the election. Half its members benefited from the JZ patronage. They continue to be under his control.
2. Ace, is essentially the CEO of ANC. His avowed support for JZ is uncontestable. He's also publicly contradicted Cyril.
3. Cyril does Not have executive power. His mandate is to execute ANC policy under oversight by the NEC.
3. Cyril does Not have executive power. His mandate is to execute ANC policy under oversight by the NEC.
4. Doctrine of collective leadership is central to the ANC culture and underpinned by the philosophy of Democratic Centralism.
5. His latitude for decision making is objectively constrained. Thabo Mbeki was ejected for adopting a strong man leadership style.
5. His latitude for decision making is objectively constrained. Thabo Mbeki was ejected for adopting a strong man leadership style.
6. The election of Cyril is perceived as an amazing gift in the context of depressed socio-economic conditions of the last 10yrs. A sense of neglect and abandonment is palpable country-wide and poverty and unemployment have increased.
7. Cyril therefore brings hope. But we dare Not think Ramaphoria will translate to concrete action. Investors are supportive but very cautious and tentative on their commitments until hopefully a new NEC is borne in 2023. @lmondi @KarimaBrown
