Thread by @DrAlbertazziUK

1/ The fact that these evictions continue in Italy with no opposition from M5S paradoxically makes it less likely that Lega will bring down this govt after EU elections – in my view. SHORT THREAD.

Italy evicts more than 500 people from refugee centre theguardian.com/world/2019/jan…

2/ After govt was formed I wrote that Lega would dominate its agenda (easy prediction) & that I did not think Conte could last very long:

bit.ly/2RdbdM8

3/ As I said then, Lega needed its new allies to try to implement the agenda it dominated, but only so that M5S/Conte could be accused of betraying “the will of the people” after trying to keep the Lega's most radical instincts in check.

4/ Things, however, have taken a different turn (I had overestimated the M5S’s will to resist being defined entirely by its junior partner). As things stand at moment, the narrative of betrayal would objectively lack any basis.

5/ As for polling data, trend has been consistent: Lega appears be attracting twice the support gained in last election & M5S is shrinking. It is this that makes people assume Salvini will bring govt down after (presumably) very successful EU elections. bit.ly/2RciFqT.

6/ But I see two obstacles to immediate elections. Firstly, Salvini’s credibility in govt has considerably been strengthened in recent months. Despite some fluctuations/differences, poll data shows over 50% of population approving of his decisions.

What data also shows, however, is that govt as a whole – & PM Conte – still enjoy honeymoon. E.g.: bit.ly/2FL15sK. And: bit.ly/2WfOp2b. Bringing experience to end now, when Lega dominates agenda, diminishes Salvini's credibility as a different kind of leader.

8/ Secondly: when a govt falls, President’s duty is to find alternative majority in Parliament rather than dissolving – if possible. Paradoxically, Salvini needs the centre-left Democratic Party (PD) to be in a better place than it is now...

9/ It still hasn’t chosen leader, message, or even if it wants to be Social-Dem or Liberal. Right now, we are still where we were 6 months ago on these issues: bit.ly/2RbTFQv

10/ While I doubt PD's most fundamental contradictions will be resolved any time soon, at least in next few months it will hold Congress & elect leader. This may give it a little boost (perhaps...)

11/ This might give it confidence so as to refuse propping up some sort of M5S-friendly “independent govt” (of the kind we have seen before) -- were Salvini to pull the plug on Conte.

12/ Right now, for PD to accept challenge of fresh elections would be suicidal. They would do anything to avoid it – whatever they may say to dress up the decision to help M5S.

13/ One and a half year from now? Not impossible – depending of course on many things.

According to crystal ball, however, they won’t have to take such decision as yet /END/