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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Incredibly weak shit from @billburton @SteveSchmidtSES. You learn absolutely nothing by putting a generic "centrist independent" against 2 named candidates.
Who will you vote for in 2020
Hmm, see some votes for Warren/Trump. You may be unaware that:
—AWESOME INDEPENDENT😀 will work for the American people, not special interests!
—AWESOME INDEPENDENT😀 has all your policy views!
—AWESOME INDEPENDENT😀 is *really* cool—indeed, awesome—and wants to be your friend!
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here's my analysis of how Amy Klobuchar could win the nomination: 53eig.ht/2DrU5O5
Also how she could lose it. But I think she's a pretty good candidate.
Everything about her campaign revolves around the Midwest. Electability is a big asset. So is proximity to Iowa. She's liable to run as a "beer track" candidate, drawing contrasts with more liberal "wine track" candidates from the coasts. (p.s.: Beto is on the "craft beer track")
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's sort of weird that this is framed as an unfortunate accident of timing. The stories are coming out because Klobuchar is running. If she were declaring in March instead of February, they'd have come in March instead of February too.
politico.com/amp/story/2019…
The allegations (of mistreatment of staff) are certainly newsworthy; they're also a long way from a Richter magnitude 8 type of scandal. So I'm also a little wary of the framing that Klobuchar's launch has been sidetracked or overshadowed.
I dunno. I guess you could study this systematically and someone probably should. It does seem like when women are running, the threshold is lower for controversies that are deemed to overshadow a campaign, e.g. Warren/DNA, Gillibrand/Franken, Klobuchar/staff (or Hillary/email).
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
FWIW, I do think Beto would have been better off declaring sooner (in January or even December). *And* I think he hasn't used the intervening time well. But as I've thought about it more (and done a little bit of talking to people) I'm less convinced it's a huge problem.
Most of the action so far has been in the leftmost half of the field from candidates on the coasts. But there's another group that's more moderate, usually Midwestern or Southern, who will heavily emphasize retail politics (i.e. Iowa). Not many in the race from that group yet.
There's also this weird thing where for years, there were too few left-wing voices in media and moderate/centrist Democratic perspectives were grossly overrepresented. Now maybe we've come full circle where media coverage tends to underestimate the number of moderate Democrats.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Josh Kraushaar
@HotlineJosh
SCOOPLET: Schultz adviser passes along some of the topline #s from their internal polling.

Schultz commissioned several ballot tests over the past few months, found "centrist indy" polling between 25-low 30s // Trump consistently at 29-30 // Warren between 26-30%.

1/2
With Warren on the ballot, found that about 24% of Dems defected to the generic centrist-independent alternative and 20% of Trump Republicans.

Polling found Trump's strong support with Rs around 70%.
2/2
worth noting polling 101: naming a generic"centrist-indy" option will lead to a higher % than if Schultz or any other candidate is named. think of it as something of a high water mark.
Read 4 tweets
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Michael Green
@andmichaelgreen
#VOTE like you remember family separation.

#Vote like you remember Kavanaugh.

#Vote like you remember “Fine people on both sides.”
#Vote like you remember Helsinki.

#Vote like you remember Khizr and Ghazala Khan.

#Vote like you remember the fake Blind Trust.

#Vote like you remember their vow to take away your health care.
#Vote like you remember “alternative Facts.”

#Vote like you remember his tax returns.

#Vote like you remember the dismantling of the EPA.

#Vote LIKE YOU REMEMBER EVERY MEMBER OF THE GOP CONGRESS WHO ALLOWED ALL OF THIS TO HAPPEN.
Read 33 tweets
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Jay Porks 67680 🌊 🇺🇸
@JayPorks
Ignore the polls and get out there and #Vote on November 6th. Relying on polling is a relic of a time gone by.
I’m not saying looking at @FiveThirtyEight’s model and charts and stuff isn’t cool, because it is and provides some insight. But no matter what the numbers say, it’s most certainly NEVER an excuse to not #Vote because you feel your peeps are a “lock”
Need nothing further than to point to 2016. Which by the way, @FiveThirtyEight didn’t really have wrong, but the “selected not elected” mindset existed before 2016. Why else would over 100 million people choose NOT to participate in their civic duty to choose their leaders.
Read 21 tweets
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𝕁𝕆⚓𝔻𝕀
@Jodi______
IMPORTANT THREAD.
TIPS that will HELP #ProtectOurVotes
Not only is up to US to #VOTE-
WE also have to work hard to defend the integrity of our #Elections.
VERIFY
🔹Your registration
🔹Polling location
🔹Type of ID needed

BRING
🔹Correct ID
🔹Proof of Registration (card or photo of confirmation)
🔹Your district specific Sample Ballot (Re: Accuracy for district races)
🔹Provisions for long lines – folding chairs, water, snacks
IF CHALLENGED, VOTE PROVISIONALLY
🔹Yes, provisional ballots are counted!

HAND MARK YOUR BALLOT IF YOU CAN
🔹Ask to HAND MARK a paper ballot at the polls, rather than using a touchscreen voting machine or touchscreen ballot marker
Read 9 tweets
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Dan Howdon
@danielhowdon
Going to do a little thread that is obviously inflected by my own prejudices but is my view on the history of the prospects for overturning Brexit / achieving a ~soft~ Brexit.
To skip to the end: I think the prospects for anything good were, for various reasons, largely frittered away in the immediate aftermath of the referendum, and this isn't sufficiently talked about.
The PLP seized on the opportunity, as they have seized upon everything for the last three years, to try to undermine Jeremy Corbyn's position as leader of the Labour Party. This, ultimately, is all they are interested in.
Read 18 tweets

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