Thread by @msbellows

1/ Admittedly this is not my field of expertise, but I've been following related developments in anti-missile technology that seems relevant to the current discussion of the INF missile treaty that the Trump Administration is about to abandon. Thread:

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1091125620749287427

2/ Trump is giving free rein to Russian development of more (and more advanced) intermediate-range missiles:

The Aegis system is the main US/NATO defense to intermediate-range missiles: defensenews.com/naval/2018/12/…

3/ In 2009, Obama shifted the US missile defense focus away from land-based systems in Eastern Europe and to ship-based systems in the Black Sea. That made Russia happy: nytimes.com/2009/09/19/wor…

4/ (Ship-mounted Aegis serves both to protect ships against incoming missiles AND as a platform to intercept missiles aimed at terrestrial targets.) en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Com…

5/ More on the 2009 shift of missile defense to ships, mainly in the Black Sea:

6/ But Obama also had longer plans for land-based Aegis systems in Romania, and eventually in Poland and Turkey, giving Putin a sad.

7/ In 2016, the US installed the planned land-based Aegis system in Romania, making Russia unhappy: cnn.com/2016/05/11/pol…

Like, REALLY unhappy: reuters.com/article/us-nat…

8/ But Poland and Turkey's Aegis-ashore missile intercepts aren't up and running yet, so Southern Europe (and Ukraine) missile defense remain ship-based. Black Sea ship-based, in particular.

So let's talk about US ships in the Black Sea.

9/ Crimea, the military port Russia stole from Ukraine, is on the Black Sea. (Does the Crimea seizure make more sense now?) To get to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean, US ships must transit a narrow strait between Europe + Turkey, the Bosporus:

10/ And, weirdly, US ships are ONLY allowed to remain in the Black Sea for three weeks at a time, under the 1936 Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits. Then they need to rotate out -- through the Bosporus.

11/ Shortly after the Crimea annexation, an Aegis-equipped destroyer, the USS Cook, entered the Black Sea. Two days later, "an unarmed Russian Su-24 'Fencer' fighter jet made twelve close-range passes of USS Cook during a patrol of the western Black Sea."

12/ "Russia′s state-run news media outlets ran a series of reports that falsely asserted that during that incident the Su-24 had [electronically] disabled the ship's Aegis combat systems. The misinformation was later picked up by the British tabloid The Sun and by Fox News."

13/ Then, under the 21-day rule, the Cook rotated out of the Black Sea. But in 2016, Russian jets AND an anti-submarine helicopter probed the SAME Aegis destroyer's systems again, this time while it was in in the Baltics:

14/ In 2017, the US increased its military presence in the Black Sea: stripes.com/news/us-navy-b…

15/ Last Nov., for no good reason, Russian ships executed a blockade of the Kerch Strait, another Black Sea inlet. theweek.com/speedreads/809…

Were they testing int'l response to such blockades, w/ eyes on a future blockade of the Bosporus to block US anti-missile destroyer access?

16/ So we know that Russia REALLY wants intermediate-range missiles, and that it's systematically taken hostile actions to probe and degrade (and possibly blockade) US missile defenses capable of intercepting them.

17/ And we know Putin's dream is the restoration of the greater Soviet empire. He's already taken half of Ukraine; he'd like to take more. Other Baltic and Balkan nations are on his radar. Intermediate-range missiles likely are how he would dissuade NATO from opposing expansion.

18/ And Trump just gave Russia permission to develop those missiles further.

Which raises scary concerns about Putin's long game re: Trump. I don't think it's merely to tweak our nose. I fear it's to reclaim Soviet territory as NATO crumbles + the US twiddles its thumbs. /End