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I'm seeing lots of conspiracy theories being thrown around the #VAGovernor mess. Here's why most, if not all of them, are probably wrong. #Thread 1/
First, the Northam yearbook photo that came out last week. Lots of speculation that this was either (a) a hit job by right-wing media, or (b) a set-up from an enemy (LG Fairfax or AG Herring) who wanted Northam out. 2/
The "right-wing hit job" idea is only half true. Northam's yearbook picture was first published by right-wing media site with ties to Roy Moore (as @SarahKing__ reported). Sure, this site has an interest in taking out Dem politicians. 3/
But the site was tipped off, most likely by a disgruntled med school classmate of Northam's that disliked his sort-of-abortion-related comments from the previous week (as @washingtonpost reported) 4/washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/styl… 
As I pointed out on Saturday, the timing of this yearbook photo made total sense - of COURSE it would surface after Northam became embroiled in abortion controversy - someone would dig deep into his med history 5/
So then after Northam's bizarro (and almost literal) song-and-dance presser, all eyes turn to @LGJustinFairfax , who is expected to be the next gov. What better way to move on from race scandal than 2nd black VA gov ever? 6/
Except now the sexual assault allegation surfaces. Immediately twitter speculates about who is #ratfucking who. Is it Northam's camp or an ally? Herring making a move? Or another GOP hit-job? 7/ bigleaguepolitics.com/stanford-fello…
But @RVAdirt notes that they had heard the allegation before. Couldn't it just be that the victim/survivor of assault saw the perpetrator about to, in her words, "get a big promotion?" (This is exactly what motivated #ChristineBlaseyFord to speak up, btw) 8/
Conspiratorial thinking was helped along by a well-meaning activist angrily demanding that @RVAdirt stop circulating the charges (the activist thought they didn't have the survivor's permission, and eventually apologized) 9/
The idea here is that Stoney, working on behalf of pal Northam, somehow gets Thad and Adria to circulate this story. Fairfax is pushing this angle, claiming that Northam and Stoney are "kneecapping" him (in words of @gmoomaw ) 11/
Look, stranger things have happened. But Thad is an academic who helped out Stoney for a year, not a political crony; and Adria is a freakin' peace activist. They are not hardened Dem operatives who would be employed by Stoney as political assassins 12/
My point here: everyone has to CALM THE F DOWN. It's fun sometimes to think of politics as a game where opponents are outmaneuvering each other. Alternatively, fear of getting fooled makes us see conspiracy. But in real life, often simplest explanation is closest to the truth 13/
To sum up: right-wing website plays a role, but no one is orchestrating these problems. They reflect problematic pasts of powerful men who happen to have intersected at this one political moment 14/
(And right now, we're seeing how badly these powerful men are handling it - Northam with his clueless responses and presser, and Fairfax with his misleading release and throwing fuel on conspiracy fire) 15/
One final note: this nonsense could be avoided if @GovernorVA WOULD JUST GODDAMN RESIGN. His selfish desire to hang on to power is destroying his party, and embarrassing himself and his state. Every VA Dem official should call/text him every 5 mins - "time to go, Ralph" 16/end
UPDATE: some interesting reporting/speculation by @RichmondMag reporter @SarahKing__ here. I think she's right to explore possibility that original photo drop "tip" could have come from someone in GOP circles, but I'm still not buying orchestration. 17/
Yes, #SOTU is tonight, and @realDonaldTrump will certainly be happy to deflect attention from own troubles to #VAGovernor. But the Trump GOP doesn't display the same kind of coordination/organization that, say, it did under Karl Rove. 18/
