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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I did a bit of number-crunching (and *GASP* forecasting 😉) to get a feel for which 2020 Democratic candidates are actually more/less popular than others and what that might look like when more people know their names. It's all in my weekly newsletter: newsletter.thecrosstab.com
Fans of #rstats and Stan will be happy
*An asterisk on Sanders’s name, because he obv hasn’t declared yet. Included because he’s a useful data point for high name rec
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Excellent take. I recommend that my followers read “Does Party Trump Ideology?” from Barber & Pope in 2018, which finds that Trump approvers, GOP loyalists, and conservatives are the most likely voters to follow Trump’s lead & adopt his policy positions EVEN when they’re liberal.
Here’s the money graph:
And an ungated version of the paper: dropbox.com/s/ofh5bzwnt4ix…
Read 3 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Americans are souring on Trump's tax plan as more and more are filing their 2018 returns
Opinions about the 2017 Trump/GOP tax bill are driven by partisanship (and the trends are weirdly symmetrical)
Turns out this is actually a really interesting case study in Q wording. YouGov changed from asking "...do you support or oppose the new tax reform law?" to support/oppose "...the tax reform plan passed by Congress and _signed into law by President Trump last year?_"
Read 4 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
This graphic from @ForecasterEnten's piece is a really good example of how important it is to be true to the data. He/they should have (A) shown both dimensions of DW-NOMINATE, (B) shown the full scale of the data, and (C) picked all of the comparable candidates.
When you do that, the differences between the groups become much more muddy. I also can't help but think that the rescaling of the liberal range of DW-NOMINATE (just half of the scale) to 0-100 was just done to exacerbate the points they chose before they analyzed the numbers.
Tangentially: Means are important, but in political science we are often more concerned with distributions. That's why we have T-tests, which he could have run to see that these differences aren't significant.
Read 7 tweets

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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
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NEW: Nationwide, @MoveOn was the biggest spender on political ads on Facebook last week. Today, we're pulling back the curtains on this election's "secret weapon": a groundbreaking new way to do digital ads that leapfrogs the GOP's political tech. THREAD. wired.com/story/moveon-s…
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Cryptstopher
@BunchesOfBees
It's become my opinion that a major stumbling block in the development of a progressive agenda has been that almost everybody, of every political alignment, misunderstands distribution of ideological positions in our society on, like, a very fundamental level
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Ali Adair
@AliAdair22
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Matt Glassman
@MattGlassman312
You may have heard that the Trump administration is considering proposing large rescissions to the just-passed omnibus spending bill.

politi.co/2GwjrPc

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