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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Americans are souring on Trump's tax plan as more and more are filing their 2018 returns
Opinions about the 2017 Trump/GOP tax bill are driven by partisanship (and the trends are weirdly symmetrical)
Turns out this is actually a really interesting case study in Q wording. YouGov changed from asking "...do you support or oppose the new tax reform law?" to support/oppose "...the tax reform plan passed by Congress and _signed into law by President Trump last year?_"
So I'm going to keep the OG tweet up because opinions about the tax law *are* changing, but that's likely being caused most by telling respondents that it's Trump's plan not b/c the issue is becoming salient to voters.
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More from @gelliottmorris see all

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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
I did a bit of number-crunching (and *GASP* forecasting 😉) to get a feel for which 2020 Democratic candidates are actually more/less popular than others and what that might look like when more people know their names. It's all in my weekly newsletter: newsletter.thecrosstab.com
Fans of #rstats and Stan will be happy
*An asterisk on Sanders’s name, because he obv hasn’t declared yet. Included because he’s a useful data point for high name rec
Read 3 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Excellent take. I recommend that my followers read “Does Party Trump Ideology?” from Barber & Pope in 2018, which finds that Trump approvers, GOP loyalists, and conservatives are the most likely voters to follow Trump’s lead & adopt his policy positions EVEN when they’re liberal.
Here’s the money graph:
And an ungated version of the paper: dropbox.com/s/ofh5bzwnt4ix…
Read 3 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
This graphic from @ForecasterEnten's piece is a really good example of how important it is to be true to the data. He/they should have (A) shown both dimensions of DW-NOMINATE, (B) shown the full scale of the data, and (C) picked all of the comparable candidates.
When you do that, the differences between the groups become much more muddy. I also can't help but think that the rescaling of the liberal range of DW-NOMINATE (just half of the scale) to 0-100 was just done to exacerbate the points they chose before they analyzed the numbers.
Tangentially: Means are important, but in political science we are often more concerned with distributions. That's why we have T-tests, which he could have run to see that these differences aren't significant.
Read 7 tweets

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Luna Jade
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#Trump admin, #GOP: Please stop lying. We have the receipts.

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As one who attended Catholic grade school all 6 years, I had the Bible and Jesus' words drilled into my brain. What the zealot "Christians" are espousing as religious values on people who are "different" than you - immigrants, LGBTQ, etc. - is a far departure from The Word.
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NotMyPresident
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#Trump #GOP #RussianMoney #Putin #Oligarchs #ElectionFraud
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Patrick Simpson
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(Thread) Lozansky, the bombing of Kosovo, and that time the Russian "turned" part of a Congressional Delegation.
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Zach Everson
@Z_Everson
Trump Hotels' website still lists Trump SoHo New York among its properties in the Our Hotels menu. Select its name though to access its page and there's a message about it being renamed

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ladynada
@heartdaughter
#Trump:

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President #Trump showed us #Qanon followers some love, and I saw one person on #CBTS on #8chan say, "love him"

I was about to cry... we love TRUMP!

#Pray4DJT #MAGA #TrumpTrain
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Damn….I have never felt more Patriotic and Hopeful and Excited to be an American in my life! KNOWING that POTUS loves us and is throwing winks at us…damn I'm warm and fuzzy now!

#QAnon #TrumpTrain #QAnon
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