Thread by @dsmilde

I'm going to put together some live tweets while watching Donald Trump's speech on #Venezuela. Interesting choice for introducing #Trump. Melania Trump speaks as an immigrant.

He says its "a new day in Latin America" not Venezuela, making clear that this is part of a regional strategy.

It's also part of an electoral strategy--introduces key figures in his electoral effort: Gov. DeSantis, Sen. Rubio, Sen. Scott, Rep. Mario Díaz-Balart. #Trump #Venezuela.

And its about socialism. Thanks those who have stood up to it. "All of the people of this region will at last be free." Again, he's making clear this is not just about Venezuela.

"Socialists have done in Venezuela all the same [they] have done wherever they have had the chance to rule."

"This will never happen to us" i.e. socialism in the US.

Tells the story of Oscar Pérez, whose mother is in the audience, who he hugs and brings on stage. He is highlighting a security agent who rose up against the regime.

The Venezuelan people are "turning the page on socialism, turning the page on dictatorship, in their is no turning back."

Socialism does not expect sovereignty or its neighbors, says Trump, in a speech saying the US is determined to push out the governments of VZla, Nicaragua and Cuba. (Same tension that has been evident in Trump's foreign policy since his Sept. 2017 UN speech.)

Affirms that the US knows who corrupt officials are and where they keep their money.

Says Maduro is a Cuban puppet, protected by the Cuban military. But Venezuela no longer has the $$ to support Cuba.

Says to VZ military officials that the eyes of the world are on them. They can choose amnesty. "President Guaidó does not seek reputation against you, nor do we."

Gives ultimatum: military officials cannot block aide, repress protestors or Guaidó. "We seek a peaceful transition, but all options are open." [cheers]

"Nothing could be better for Venezeula and nothing could be better for another captive nation--Cuba--than the rebirth of democracy in Venezuela." [audience chants "USA, USA, USA..."]

Venezuela gave Cuba oil. Cuba gave Venezuela "a police state run directly from Havana."

It would be interesting to see a word cloud of this speech. I suspect he has said "socialism" more than Venezuela. He's only mentioned "communism" a couple of times.

Introduces David Smolansky and tells story of grandparents fleeing USSR, father fleeing Cuba and Smolansky's dream of returning to his country. Trump seems to be pointing to what could be his legacy: successfully freeing, i.e. overthrowing a socialist country.

Just in case: "America will never be a socialist country."

When Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua are free, this "will become the first free hemisphere in all of history."

Hmmmmm...."you can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get what you need" (Rolling Stones). Given the failure of 60 yrs. of confrontation with Cuba, can't think of a less comforting song for Venezuelan expats.

Kidding aside, I think this is a pretty successful electoral speech for Trump. He effectively has taken the Venezuela issue and made it a way to stitch together:

votes in FL among immigrant communities, criticize rising discussion of "socialism" among left democrats, and galvanize neocon plans to reconfigure the hemisphere.

Trump talked about amnesty for military officials putting forward a pretty compelling choice: get out now or pay the price. Prob. is that 4 military officials on the ground & caught up in particular networks & relationships where distrust reins, choice is probably not that clear.

The strategy of putting Venezuela into the context of neoconservative regional plans and simultaneously bridging to other immigrant populations works for Trump 2020, but likely does not help regionally, where anti-Cuba sentiment is nothing like it is FL.