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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Feel like the conventional wisdom is tilted ever-so-slightly toward underrating the chance a moderate will win the Democratic primary just because not many of the moderates have declared yet, whereas the progressives have. (Yeah, I know the progressive/moderate line is blurry.)
I'm also pretty interested in Sherrod Brown, who could straddle the progressive/moderate line maybe better than anyone else.
TBH my views remain boringly similar to PredictIt. I'd be tempted to say Bernie is a little overrated but: (1) that fundraising is pretty impressive; (2) dynamics of a divided field could help him; (3) Warren isn't off to a great start. bit.ly/2S3Huqg
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Random NBA Draft idea: If you "win" (finish top 4) in the lottery, your odds worsen in subsequent seasons.

e.g.: Get the 1st pick, lose 70% of your lottery balls (1 "ball" = 0.1% chance) for the next 3 drafts.
2nd pick, lose 50% of balls
3rd pick, lose 30%
4rd pick, lose 10%
The losses are cumulative, e.g. if you get the 2nd pick and 3rd pick in consecutive years, you lose 80% of your balls in the 3rd year. But you can't go into ball debt. You always keep a minimum of one ball (0.1%).
This is a Good Idea. It both punishes teams for **multi-year** 76ers-style tanking plans and evens out the luck quite a bit. It would be pretty easily to implement without making other structural changes to the draft.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
#Actually, the chart actually shows clear evidence of the beer-wine frontier, with certain types of sprits (e.g. scotch, brandy/cognac) straddling the frontier. 🍺🍷
A few highbrow beers (although there's nothing *truly* highbrow on here) creep over into wineland, but that's sort of what you'd expect.
👏 WINE 👏 TRACK 👏 BEER 👏 TRACK 👏 HAS 👏 BEEN 👏 SCIENTIFICALLY 👏 VALIDATED 👏
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Based on the way I count, there have been 13 "major" Democratic candidates for president so far, 1 of which (Ojeda) has since withdrawn. Per betting markets and NYT, you'd expect there to be an average of 7-8 more, for 20-21 total.
The overall outlook on the number of candidates hasn't changed since I wrote this last month. It's a very crowded field and I think people are actually underestimating how many Dems have expressed strong interest but not declared yet. 53eig.ht/2GGuiVq
It is NOT normal to have this many candidates declare this early.

At this point in 2015, *no* major Republicans had officially launched their campaigns. Cruz was the first on 3/23/15. Although 8-9 Republicans had established PACs to formally explore a candidacy.
Read 3 tweets

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Ashton Pittman
@ashtonpittman
The supporters positioned behind Bernie Sanders in Brooklyn today looked a lot more diverse than the group of supporters standing in front of him. #BernieInBrooklyn
Brooklyn is 36% black, 20% Hispanic, and 35% non-Hispanic white. Presumably, around half of Brooklynites are also women.
Here is another crowd shot from another angle. Still overwhelmingly male, largely white.
Read 9 tweets
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Alt. U.S. Press Sec.
@AltUSPressSec
How do we know that Russia is amplifying Syria chemical attack denialism?

1. We have troll accounts that show Russian attempts to co-opt the anti-war narrative w/ Syria conspiracy theories.

2. The Joint Report on RUS Interference indicates attempts by Russia to assist Sanders.
In fact, on Hamilton68, a dashboard which allows a view into Russian interference activity by tracking known propaganda accounts, Syria is *consistently* the highest topic. dashboard.securingdemocracy.org
The narrative created by RUS trolls about Syria is familiar: chemical attacks were a false flag, pictures from the ground are fake, videos are fake, relief workers are fake, doctors are lying, the intelligence community cannot be trusted.
Read 28 tweets
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Alt. U.S. Press Sec.
@AltUSPressSec
There is a concerted propaganda campaign involving Russia, which is fighting in Syria on behalf of the pro-Assad Ba’athists.

That is the reason for the constant swirl of conspiracy theories intended to deny a war crime, usually a staple of the far right, by the far left.
Denial of Syrian chemical attacks is a staple associated with many anti-war activists who backed Senator Sanders in the 2016 Democratic Primary.

It began as a natural outgrowth of distrust and suspicion caused by the politically motivated IC conclusions prior to the Iraq War.
This is NOT to say that opposing America intervention in Syria is inherently pro-Russian.

It is also NOT to say that everyone who supported @SenSanders is an Assad apologist or influenced solely by Russian propaganda.
Read 31 tweets
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Lulu Friesdat
@LuluFriesdat
Thread 1. My latest #ElectionSecurity reporting on the presence of a #WiFi signal in the tabulating room in #Dallas TX - the state where @BetoORourke lost his #Senate race to @tedcruz truthout.org/articles/new-e…
2. The investigation is over a backdrop of previous trouble that #Dallas County had with the results in the March #Democratic #Primary where multiple precincts had more #votes than #voters. Never a good thing.
3. On @TheBradBlog I talk about the investigation & play exclusive audio of #LauraPressley, an engineer coordinating #election observers all over #TX who discovered the irregularities, so you hear directly from the person who is reporting the #WiFi signal. bradblog.com/?p=12780
Read 6 tweets
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Scary Jerry
@BostonJerry
I want to talk about this "Did Beto Blow It?" story that's been published by Politico and amplified by establishment media even though the election isn't over and votes haven't been counted yet.
Here's the story: politico.com/magazine/story…

It's almost entirely based on REPUBLICANS in Texas talking about how they think Beto will lose because he didn't do enough to win over Republican voters.
Republicans ALWAYS say Dems should try to win over GOP voters instead of trying to turn out the liberal base but for some reason the media treats that as an objective analysis instead of partisan spin.

Beto's whole strategy is to motivate Dems, not win over Republicans.
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