Thread by @SimonFRCox

Why is “Irish border backstop” such a fundamental issue? THREAD especially for tweeps who aren’t familiar with UK-Ireland relations. 1/

Ireland was invaded by Norman England in 1171. Since then, people of Ireland have wanted independence from England (later Great Britain - England + Wales + Scotland) 3/

An international border on the island of Ireland was created in 1921, when the South - what is now Republic of Ireland (RoI) - became an independent state, and Northern Ireland remained in the UK. 4/

From 1921, state controls on this new RoI/NI border were decided by RoI and UK, as sovereign states. There were some bilateral agreements. 5/

By signing Treaty of Rome in 1971 - which led to them joining EEC in 1973 - UK & Ireland agreed to no obstacles to free movement of capital, goods, workers or business between their countries. First multilateral international treaty abt 50 year old border on island of Ireland 6/

(EEC became EU in 2007.
EEC/EU law doesn’t prevent all obstacles - or national security checks, but they can’t be disguised border control.) 7/

In 1998, RoI and UK made the Belfast Agreement aka Good Friday Agreement (GFA - a bilateral agreement). This transferred decision-making on cross-border issues to new joint RoI-UK bodies. 8/

The GFA was made by two EU member states and refers to that fact. It couldn’t change EU law and didn’t need to repeat what EU law requires. 9/

Brexit will mean UK is no longer bound by the EU Treaties. These are the only *multilateral* Treaties that underpin GFA, by barring UK & RoI from imposing most kinds of controls at the RoI/NI border on the island of Ireland. 10/

The draft UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement would continue the international law bar on UK and RoI imposing those border controls on the island of Ireland. 11/

But only the “backstop” continues that bar on controls after 2020. Backstop would require UK to comply with relevant EU rules - for goods in UK - until practical solution is found to allow RoI/NI border to operate as an EU law external border, but without border obstacles. 12/

If UK doesn’t stay bound to comply with EU rules (at least in NI), then RoI would be required by its longstanding EU Treaties to impose border controls on whole RoI-UK border. Including RoI/NI. irishtimes.com/business/econo… 13/

The backstop means RoI complies with EU Treaties even though RoI does not impose controls at EU’s external frontier. 14/

UK Gov does not accept GFA bars UK from leaving EU without Withdrawal Agreement. Even tho this is only legal mechanism that allows RoI to not be bound - by EU Treaty - to impose border controls on island of Ireland. 15/

EU law does not require the backstop. But Its the demand of those who want UK to be clearly barred by international law from imposing border controls in the island of Ireland - or forcing RoI to do so by Brexit. 16/

The vast majority of people on the island of Ireland want to be in the EU. This includes most people who live in N Ireland. The vast majority oppose any border controls. 17/

But many Brexiters in Great Britain - and Democratic Unionist Party in N Ireland - would rather see a hard border on island of Ireland than agree to the backstop. 18/

Brexiters rightly fear that UK will never create the technical solutions for frictionless controls at RoI/NI border. These would need to guarantee EU checks for customs & product & animal safety. 19/

So long as UK hasn’t found technical solutions - or a new legal solution agreed with EU - the backstop would bar UK from changing its own goods standards & checks from those EU law requires. 21/

Some Brexiters - including most British nationalists in Conservative & DUP - claim (1) it’s easy to have a frictionless border but (2) EU will use backstop as legal pretext to permanently keep UK from changing its laws & obstruct UK making non-EU free trade agreements. 22/

IMO Brexiters are wrong abt EU’s wishes. EU doesn’t want UK half-in half-out of EU

But they’re definitely wrong to think controlled frictionless border is technically likely

So they’re not wrong abt backstop *consequnces* It would keep UK bound by EU rules, probbly for ever 23/

EU knows backstop is likely to be permanent. EU will risk UK-EU political conflict arising from backstop to ensure UK will never act to cause a hard border on island of Ireland. This protects EU external border *and* basis of peace settlement. 24/

Ireland & EU have proof that UK is willing to unilaterally force hard border on the island of Ireland. UK decided to end its EU Treaty - not because the other parties had broken the Treaties. But only because UK changed its mind - knowing this could lead to a hard border. 25/

UK’s Parl legally approved unilateral action to force changes to UK-RoI relations (A50). UK Parl allows Gov to threaten RoI with massive tariffs on its key exports to UK (No Deal).

Who would trust UK Parl not to sign a no-backstop WA & then impose a hard border? 26/

But why would RoI & EU prefer to risk a hard border in 2019 (No Deal) over that risk in 2021 (removing backstop from WA)?

Because a no-backstop WA is an international agreement - a Treaty. 27/

By acting so that any hard border is only created by Uk’s unilateral acts, Ireland & EU maintain their legal rights & arguments against it under international law: GFA & EU Treaties.

A no-backstop WA would abandon these rights. 28/

This may also help explain why May agreed backstop WA & has made no formal request to EU for the backstop to be removed from WA. Gov doesn’t want UK to look like it acts unilaterally against GFA. 29/

British nationalists care more for a sovereign power over future goods rules - that they have no clear plan to use - than they do for the most important rules that underpin peace on the island of Ireland. 30/

EU and Ireland care more for their long-term sovereign powers to pressure UK not to change decades old soft border rules, that underpin a relatively recent peace. 31/

And British nationalism has such power in UK politics, especially in the Westminster elite, that this is what’s driving UK ever closer to a No Deal Brexit. 32/32