,
12 tweets,
4 min read
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A quick thread on May’s statement, for the bedtime tweeters.
Ignore the claim there are 6 key issues.
All that is worth looking at is what she says she will not do;
what she says she will do;
+ what she says might do.
TL;DR: There is no Plan B.
1/12
gov.uk/government/spe…
Ignore the claim there are 6 key issues.
All that is worth looking at is what she says she will not do;
what she says she will do;
+ what she says might do.
TL;DR: There is no Plan B.
1/12
gov.uk/government/spe…
What she won’t do:
Revoke Art. 50 (that’s just rude);
Extend Art.50 (so No Deal remains live);
Call a 2nd referendum (she doubts it’ll win)*
* Though she doesn't completely rule out the possibility of Parliament bringing this forward.
2/12
Revoke Art. 50 (that’s just rude);
Extend Art.50 (so No Deal remains live);
Call a 2nd referendum (she doubts it’ll win)*
* Though she doesn't completely rule out the possibility of Parliament bringing this forward.
2/12
What she might do post-Brexit:
Take lessons from her mistakes in these negotiations when it comes to negotiating the future relationship.
She’ll be more inclusive: ‘engaging’ with elected reps from NI (and [randomly] English regions), & businesses & other normal people.
3/12
Take lessons from her mistakes in these negotiations when it comes to negotiating the future relationship.
She’ll be more inclusive: ‘engaging’ with elected reps from NI (and [randomly] English regions), & businesses & other normal people.
3/12
+ mentions social rights & environmental protections (so govt must be listening!!).
But, oops, all she actually promises is Govt to support an amendment saying Parl shd "be able to consider any changes made by the EU in these areas in future." UK world leading? Not so much.
4/12
But, oops, all she actually promises is Govt to support an amendment saying Parl shd "be able to consider any changes made by the EU in these areas in future." UK world leading? Not so much.
4/12
Now, most importantly, what *will* she do?
Plan B remember?
Well, she'll waive the fee she imposed for settled status for EU citizens.
[Waive fee instead of keeping assurances given. Or instead of providing a system that is efficient & fair...]
An action! Cue: headlines!
5/12
Plan B remember?
Well, she'll waive the fee she imposed for settled status for EU citizens.
[Waive fee instead of keeping assurances given. Or instead of providing a system that is efficient & fair...]
An action! Cue: headlines!
5/12
At last: to the substantive issues.
She will go back to the EU with 2 requests.
The 1st is to add “more precision” to the political declaration on the future relationship.
This is possible.
But she gives no hint as to the direction of that precision.
6/12
She will go back to the EU with 2 requests.
The 1st is to add “more precision” to the political declaration on the future relationship.
This is possible.
But she gives no hint as to the direction of that precision.
6/12
Will it be towards a soft or a hard Brexit?
Softer makes backstop less likely but alienates the Tories;
harder alienates Labour but assuages ERG (at the same time as making the backstop a shoo-in, for it all but guarantees future relationship will entail hard borders).
7/12
Softer makes backstop less likely but alienates the Tories;
harder alienates Labour but assuages ERG (at the same time as making the backstop a shoo-in, for it all but guarantees future relationship will entail hard borders).
7/12
And so to the #backstop.
She sees 2 problems.
1. It treats NI differently from rest of the UK
[as the current UK constitution does, but what about that]
2. People fear being ‘trapped in it permanently’.
(So presumably she’ll ask for an end date or unilateral withdrawal rt.)
8/12
She sees 2 problems.
1. It treats NI differently from rest of the UK
[as the current UK constitution does, but what about that]
2. People fear being ‘trapped in it permanently’.
(So presumably she’ll ask for an end date or unilateral withdrawal rt.)
8/12
The problem is that the EU won’t give this for 2 reasons.
First, to add either of those conditions makes it no longer a backstop, i.e. it doesn’t guarantee to avoid a hard @BorderIrish & protect @BelfastAgmt .
@MichelBarnier & @simoncoveney have explained this ad infinitum.
9/12
First, to add either of those conditions makes it no longer a backstop, i.e. it doesn’t guarantee to avoid a hard @BorderIrish & protect @BelfastAgmt .
@MichelBarnier & @simoncoveney have explained this ad infinitum.
9/12
Second, quite frankly, May's demands are coming at the behest of those who want to see a hard Brexit,
which would automatically mean a hard border,
which the UK & EU want to avoid,
hence the need for the #backstop.
[rinse and repeat]
10/12
which would automatically mean a hard border,
which the UK & EU want to avoid,
hence the need for the #backstop.
[rinse and repeat]
10/12
May wanting to water down the backstop to appease the ERG is like seeking to downgrade your car insurance from fully comprehensive to third party at the insistence of your joyriding nephew.
We need this insurance because the nephew is a liability & has the spare car key.
11/12
We need this insurance because the nephew is a liability & has the spare car key.
11/12
In sum, 'Plan B' could be said to be impractical, unwinnable, a huge risk to the country, a time waster and a fool’s errand.
💸Plus a £65 saving!!!! 💸
12/12
💸Plus a £65 saving!!!! 💸
12/12
