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If a denomination's structure is similar to the US Government, it may be helpful to think through some of the challenges the government's 3 branches must overcome -- and apply it to the denomination, in this case The @UMChurch.
Governments have to assert their LEGITIMACY, CAPACITY, and AUTONOMY.

Another key question is ENFORCEMENT POWER.

Why is it not the same in The UMC's "branches," the @UMCGC, the @umcbishops, and the Judicial Council?
Denominations have no police force or army (though will The UMC now need the GaySexPolice?) So enforcement is already harder than for, say, a government. But in the government, the Executive pretty much monopolizes enforcement power. The Legislative can tinker w/ funding maybe.
The Judiciary (Supreme Court and lower courts) famously has no enforcement. No army, no one to compel compliance with its decisions. So the Judiciary more than the other branches depends on its own LEGITIMACY.

So let's look at the 3 "branches" of The UMC through these lenses.
AUTONOMY means the institution can exert its power independently of its constituents and the other branches.

CAPACITY is a kind of gauge of power: How well can bishops or annual conferences exercise their power to govern?

LEGITIMACY is the recognized right to rule.
I think a pretty good case can be made that The UMC's governing branches are experiencing (or, if not, will very soon experience) crisis levels of legitimacy, capacity, and autonomy.
As with the government, the whole system depends on a kind of near-unanimous affirmation of the rules of the game. That clearly does not exist, and has not existed for a long time. The progressive strategy of widespread defiance ("biblical disobedience") forced the question.
You can stack boards, panels, and councils with LGBT affirming people who pledge to not enforce the sexuality standards. You can elect bishops who actively support the effort, or who look the other way. But you can't change the rules without winning at General Conference.
I thought the better strategy was to fight for those changes while obeying the covenant meanwhile. But I don't tell oppressed people how they can or cannot fight. It's not my fight anyway. I just note that it was devastating for the institutions' legitimacy, capacity & autonomy.
That's why I admired the integrity of the Simple Plan. And it's why I thought the One Church Plan would have made all these problems even worse. But it doesn't matter now. The question is, What is the "way forward?"
Conservatives have now created a situation in which they will have to do a great deal of enforcement, though I doubt they have the capacity to do much of it. Can they file charges against everyone? Will existing boards, panels, and councils now play by the rules? Doubtful.
I hope the "gracious exist" is really gracious. And I hope it is really an exit. But institutional inertia is powerful. Just look at the government! One act of graciousness would be for both sides to allow the current impasse, however broken, to remain until next steps are known.
But if the progressives really do leave, the conservatives who remain will still have huge challenges: What will they do as more of their clergy and laity (esp young) become affirming? Will they have the will to punish (selectively?!) covenant breakers? Will they have the power?
And wherever the progressives go, will they have the capacity to compel everyone in the new institution to agree on just how "progressive" the denomination will be? A problem with merging with TEC, for example, is that UM progressives may not like TEC opt-outs or holdouts, etc.
And for whoever tries to leave, will they have the autonomy to break away? Will the annual conferences have the autonomy to let them? It's going to be so, so ugly. But even more so if no one honors the covenants, articles, and structures that already exist, however weakly.
If you get to design a denomination anew, don't make it like the government. A church should be different, even if analogous power dynamics exist.

The UMC broke over a crisis of faith and order. Church folk "get" the FAITH part. Don't neglect the ORDER part.

/end
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