Thread by @Usherwood

Let's walk through EU side of extension-request-ing

1/

A reminder: all the EU27 will have to approve any extension to Art.50 beyond 29 March

2/

Given the gravity of this (plus the uncertainty of what the UK intends by it), that almost certainly needs Heads of Gvt-level agt, logically at #EUCO on 21-22 March

3/

That in turn implies need for request from UK to go in by end of this week, to allow for domestic consultation/briefing/etc, ahead of actual decision

4/

Key Qs for EU27 on this:
- what's the point of the extension?
- does the time requested match the purpose?
- is there a plan for handling knock-on consequences?

5/

As frequently discussed, extensions to wrap-up WA implementation after +ve MV2, or to hold #GE19 or #PV would be (probably) fine, as purposeful

6/

Much less so, if just "we're in a fix and need some weeks to dream up a solution"

7/

Thus UK will have to look (and be, as much as possible in situation) like there's a plan, and good chance of plan happening

8/

Also, if extensions pushes up past #EP19 (23-6 May), then some ideas on how to handle (non-)elections in UK will be useful: EU will be v.alive to risk of making subsequent extension more difficult -> no-deal more likely

9/

However, right now main consideration for EU will be to work out what's actually going on in Commons. Absence of clear agenda or pathways through and past votes is major concern

10/

Desire to help out UK through local difficulty appears to be waning, with view that maybe it's easier just to cut it all off now coming through more often

11/

Another reminder: Brexit is not high on EU's list of Stuff To Deal With, so if closing door on it means being able to focus more on the rest of the list, then that might appeal in some quarters

(again, extension needs unanimity)

12/

Some discussion over w/e of EU extracting concessions from UK. Right now, extracting a plan would be top of the list

13/

Whatever the future relationship, EU needs to close off the liabilities dealt with in WA (citizens' rights, finances, Irish dimension), so that's the priority right now

14/

Yes, some MS might try to play hardball for something else, but still enough inertia in system for them to be knocked back into line by others

(that inertia will weaken if more than one extension BTW)

15/

Final thought: EU has accommodated UK's process problems at various points, but always sticking to underlying interests and Art.50 procedure, so don't expect EU side of any request to be automatic

16/

tl;dr Gvt and Commons might think a bit more about the EU side of extension requesting than they have

/end