Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ep19

Most recents (16)

When voting this morning please remember:

👍 You don't need ID,

👍 You don't need your polling card unless you are on the register anonymously (for security reasons) - If you are then your polling card will not have your name on it but will have an alphanumeric code instead,
👍 You can bring your dog with you and in rural areas you can tie your horse up outside,

👍 If you make a mistake on your ballot paper then put a cross through the paper and return to the clerk and advise them you've made a mistake and need a reissue,
👍 Take your child with you if you wish but make sure you are the only person marking the ballot paper as it is your vote and you must be 18 or older to vote in this election in the UK,

👍 If you need help then just let the clerk or presiding officer know,
Read 13 tweets
Let's talk about 'sincere cooperation' for a bit, shall we?

1/
The Treaty on European Union Art 4(3) states:

"Pursuant to the principle of sincere cooperation, the Union and the Member States shall, in full mutual respect, assist each other in carrying out tasks which flow from the Treaties....

2/
"...The Member States shall take any appropriate measure, general or particular, to ensure fulfilment of the obligations arising out of the Treaties or resulting from the acts of the institutions of the Union...

3/
Read 17 tweets
This is an important one, so let's run through it

1/
Headline is another request for extension to art.50, this time to 30 June 2019.

Aim is to complete MV4/WAIB process by 22.5, so can leave on that date (i.e. ahead of #EP19)

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This time is needed for on-going negotiations with LAB and then Parliamentary process

3/
Read 10 tweets
Let's best-case scenario this:
- TM & JC meet tomorrow and agree a revised Pol Dec
- submit to EUCO on Friday, on same day that MV4 passes
- timeline for WAIB to complete by 22/5, with no major delays in HoC or HoL

Any spot problems yet?

1/
If nothing else, requires EU to accept an extension from 12/4 to 22/5 on promise of good behaviour by Parliament/Gvt, with big risk if any further time is needed that all the #EP19 issues kick back in, with no fallback position

2/
And that's best-case. Hard to see immediate common ground with Corbyn, and robust support for MV4 (esp if CON ruptures). That opens up opportunity for new motion of confidence.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Another #2yrsArticle50 panel, on UK-EU future relations
.@CSBarnard24 opens by noting that any future trading relationship depends on settling WA and its issue
Barnard: Backstop will only disappear if comprehensive FTA and customs arrangement. Canada-type deal still needs backstop.

No other magic solution exists
Read 20 tweets
Let's consider where #EUCO is at right now on extension:

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Yes, there are some (FR especially) then aren't keen on giving more time at all

But several (IE, NL, DE, etc.) that are very much focused on avoiding a no-deal, so extension is an essential first step (given where UK is right now)

2/
Hard to see that French ambivalence outweighs pressing interest of others, so likely to be a push to offer extension of some kind.

Thus Q has to be what kind of extension

3/
Read 10 tweets
Since today's a good day for it, let's consider extending Art.50, but from the EU's perspective:

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A reminder that the EU27 have to unanimously approve any extension, as does the UK, so what they think matters on this

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Benefits of extending fall into 3 basic categories:
- legal
- political
- negotiational [sue me]

3/
Read 14 tweets
So, WTF?

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Even by the extracting standards of recent weeks, tonight has been a complete mess

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Recall that this was supposed to be the least problematic of this week's three votes: confirm that no-deal isn't liked, move on to extension and whatever else - simple

3/
Read 10 tweets
Right, let's try to work out what yesterday meant:

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Let's start with the basics: the WA is unchanged, so the core foundation hasn't moved (as expected)

2/
However, the addition of the extra instruments and declarations does add another layer of meaning to the WA's provisions

3/
Read 13 tweets
Let's walk through EU side of extension-request-ing

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A reminder: all the EU27 will have to approve any extension to Art.50 beyond 29 March

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Given the gravity of this (plus the uncertainty of what the UK intends by it), that almost certainly needs Heads of Gvt-level agt, logically at #EUCO on 21-22 March

3/
Read 17 tweets
So it's the Friday before the Week of Big Brexit Votes and you want to get your head around it all?

Come with me

1/
Let's start with the problem: Parliament is blocked

Here's one thread about that


2/
And another one, this time with diagrams and everything.



Basically, when everyone looks weak, there's little incentive to compromise

3/
Read 10 tweets
#pollofpolls 1/6
Time for my February update which comes in two parts, the second part will be regional detail& projections coming tomorrow. Today I'll just look at headline national figure and trends.
Over the past month the only gains have been made by independents & others.
#pollofpolls 2/6
While @FineGael contine to poll above 30%, the small gain that @fiannafailparty made at the turn of the year has now been reversed and FF are now back to polling lower than their #GE16 result.
@FineGael @fiannafailparty On the left, @sinnfeinireland appears to be holding at ~17% which should generate seats gains in #LE19 but @labour continue to flatline on ~5% meaning potential #LE19 losses and no seat in #EP19.
Read 6 tweets
Let's come back to this point

We're at a block at Art.50 and have been for some time

1/
That block mostly consists of the Irish backstop, plus assorted governance issues (including the role of the ECJ)

2/
Since March, we've not seen any real mvt on these points, esp Irish dimension

3/
Read 16 tweets
Since it's a thing once again, let's talk Art.50 extension:

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So this is one of a group of means of lengthening the Brexit (in the largest sense) process

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However, it's very particular, because it involves lengthening the period that the UK is a member of the EU

3/
Read 19 tweets
Right. Decent seat, and all set for some live-tweeting from #NIBrexit
A reminder that the programme is here: ukandeu.ac.uk/event/brexit-a… and live-streaming is here: facebook.com/TheUKinaChangi…
You'll also want the @UKandEU report that goes with all this: ukandeu.ac.uk/uk-and-ireland…
Read 111 tweets
A thread on how the Art.50 talks might move on:

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So we now have some sense of where next sides are on all the major issues: Phase 1, transition and the New Relationship. Sure, it's patchy but we know considerable more than we di

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Rather than break things down in huge detail, let's take a more practical approach and think what needs to be done and when

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Read 25 tweets

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