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1/ Now that we know Jonas is reading $TSLAQ closely, I’ve decided to do a quick snapshot analysis on the state of Q1 demand. Could one of my followers email this thread to him? $TSLA 
2/ I start with a hard dilemma for $TSLA bulls to rationalize. The Model 3 registration gap. As of today, there’s roughly 10,000 fewer entries in NMVTIS than cumulative US sales estimates. Why this gap persists is a mystery. $TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ Once we know March deliveries in the US, one of two things will be true. Either the gap will explode higher (strong March) or demand in the US for the Model 3 will have collapsed fully (weak March). Neither of these outcomes is bullish. $TSLA $TSLAQ
4/ So far, Model 3 entries to NMVTIS in March are trailing December by a wide margin. Please note that these are 'entries in NMVTIS during the month', and not necessarily 'sales estimates for that month'. Regardless, this data is not bullish. $TSLA $TSLAQ
5/ Now we turn to the Model 3 in Europe. Here are the daily registrations for Norway, The Netherlands, and Spain through yesterday. How many Model 3s are on each of these boats? That will determine the quarter. We’ll know soon enough. $TSLA $TSLAQ
6/ What about their other sedan? $TSLA delivered 13,500 Model S cars in Q4 2018. Is the Model 3 cannibalizing demand for the Model S? Will the loss of subsidies hurt? Let’s have a closer look…
7/ More than a third of the Q4 Model S deliveries came in Europe, and of those about half were in The Netherlands, where subsidies for expensive EVs have since expired. Source: TMC. $TSLA $TSLAQ
8/ Here is the daily tracking of registrations of the Model S in Norway, The Netherlands, and Spain. We will see an uptick into the quarter close. But clearly there will be a substantial drop sequentially for this important product. $TSLA $TSLAQ
9/ So there you have it. A registration dilemma/demand collapse in the US. A logistics question in Europe. And a dying platform in the Model S. What is the plan for Q2? Is the worldwide plan to sell cheap Model 3s in lieu of expensive cars? Got it. $TSLA $TSLAQ
10/ None of this is trading advice. Do your own research. Elon is nothing if not unpredictable. Good luck to all. $TSLA $TSLAQ
