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Emerging consensus seems to be if MV3 passes, ST extension; if it fails, LT extension and indicative votes—which EU would prefer. But what happens if MV fails by 10-20 MPs? No10 hasn’t given up on MV4. May would use #EUCO for one last push /1
We’ve never bought the “leaders will deliver” narrative, and still don’t. But important to note that signals & data points from Bxl, as well as EU capitals, about how EU leaders would respond in this situation are mixed—notwithstanding official statements /2
We would also not rule out May winning MV4 if EU leaders go for long delay. On basis of last night’s votes, Commons might not approve 21-24 month delay. So that's another route to MV4 and May's deal /ENDS
