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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A few more data points to support my negativity @JGForsyth. Based on chats w all sides. Short #Brexit thread
Cox has left impression with his EU counterparts that if only he'd been involved, outcome would somehow be different /1
Very frustrating for EU, which has had to re-explain to AG why alt arrangements and time limits don't fly. Tomorrow, they'll do same re unilateral exit clause /2
Cox, Barclay have tabled no new concrete suggestions. Nor has May in her discussions with EU leaders. More worryingly, in calls May has had so far, she's not once mentioned extending A50 /3
EU side are no fools. Hard for them to see this as anything other than time wasting /4
Still possible process will deliver a combination of things (revised PD, strengthened Juncker-Tusk letter; codicil) that allows Cox to soften his legal advice. But lots of risks. Not least whether it'll deliver a majority in Commons /5
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More from @Mij_Europe see all

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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Merci. I'd add:

1/ EU's reluctance to open WA - which is a toughening of its position from several weeks ago - is partly being driven by belief that as clock winds down, MPs may actually have less not more incentive to co-operate
2/ Perception in EU of May's "Bee Gees Staying Alive" strategy is beginning to impact internal debate on length of any A50 extension. Granting one still more convenient than alternative, but why even offer UK 3 month option if nothing will be different over that timeframe?
3/ Speculation about splits between Com and Council wrong, even if talks now likely at “Juncker-Tusk-Lid-Barclay” level; EU needs to present what happens now as not another renegotiation led by Barnier/TF50. Those optics matter for May too as she aims to win backing in Commons
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
1/ With all focus on Commons today, it’s again important to draw attention to #EU. Rarely have EU’s big-4 been confronted with such challenging domestic political situations, while also facing European-wide polls. EU’s stance on #Brexit always needs to be understood in this light
2/ Italy represents perhaps best example of all key challenges facing EU (Euro; policy mix; migration; populism), how difficult they are to resolve and how they’ll interact w European elections in May. This is what senior officials in Bxl, Berlin, Paris etc. really fret about
3/ Rightly so. @FSanti_
Coalition will remain inherently unstable, but probs here to stay;
Euro/fiscal risks haven’t disappeared, just kicked to new College;
Salvini probs biggest winner in European elex; League has very good chance of leading enlarged far-right group in new EP
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
#Brexit continues to dominate UK debate and indeed our own coverage. But what about #EU risks in 2019? Thread for us EU watchers: @CER_Grant @JeremyCliffe @MMQWalker @MehreenKhn @pmdfoster @aqbyrne @PedderSophie @tom_nuttall @clichfield1 @FSanti_ @BBCkatyaadler
1/ % of May’s deal passing are rising. DUP/Eurosceptics sounding more conciliatory; big mood change yesterday. But still v long way to go. ERG suspect May will hide behind Commons on A50 extension. Peace moves could be overtaken by events (backbench amendments)
2/ EU’s concern with Brexit is growing; no longer simple occupation of TF50, WPA50, COREPER and Sherpas; many more voices now involved as clock runs down to no-deal. But #Brexit still not biggest concern for EU—yet. So what is?
Read 17 tweets

Related threads

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ooj
@SkidRowRadio_YT
THREAD: right here's what I think is really going on with #Brexit:

May's game is move to a 2nd ref but blame Corbyn by havin all neolib forces pressure him to support it. then rig the vote while scaring us out of 'no deal' which is actually just 'brexit' - what we voted for 1/18
if the Tories adopt:
Lab Customs union deal = they split
No deal = they split
May's deal = they split
A people's vote = the country splits
this has been their plan all along: to forfeit country for party. to steal brexit. they do not want to leave. 'no deal' was a rebranding 2/19
Corbyn knows this & is bluffing May all the way to that cliff edge because actually he's got wings, & the freedom of a clean break will aid his program, free from EU spending caps or investment rules. he's far more willing to push this to the wire than May 3/19
Read 18 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
Another #Brexit #thread
1/ Here's the thing about the Theresa May — Jean-Claude Juncker spat over whether May was vague or not at the #EUCO summit table about her Brexit demands. It’s a sideshow because the undeniable reality is that Westminster-at-large is vague.
2/ Westminister is undeniably vague via there being no majority for any type of Brexit, yet an absolute insistence from the British government and opposition leader that nevertheless a hard-ish take back control Brexit must happen.
3/ That cul-de-sac is Theresa May's fault. Other leaders might have called Jeremy Corbyn, Nicola Strugeon, Carwyn Jones and Arlene Foster round a single table and told them they weren't leaving until a tolerable version of Brexit could be agreed or, per above, tolerated
Read 14 tweets
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Ryan Heath
@PoliticoRyan
#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
SO. #Brexit boils down to how - or if - the UK can ever leave the dreaded Irish backstop.

There is talk of a "review mechanism". So what might that be? How might it work?

Some thoughts after chats with both sides + experts 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Let's start from the point of agreement.

Both sides say backstop is
a) necessary
b) temporary
c) should be superseded by future relationship

So there does need to be what one EU source calls an "unwinding" mechanism. /2
The problem (before we get to the detail of that mechanism) is that no-one can see what version of the Future Relationship can deliver on UK commitment to no return to a hard border in Ireland.

May's dual tariff or 'MaxFac' unicorns are dead. /3
Read 17 tweets
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Richard Broughton
@Richard_Ampere
Thread: How are UK online news outlets covering #Brexit in 2018? An analysis, with data and charts!

Part 3: Who’s outperforming the Shadow Cabinet in terms of influencing the #Brexit debate?

Answer: A small handful of Conservative & Labour Backbench MPs...

Read more...
For previous pieces (and methodology), see:

DExEU vs Shadow DExEU: and

Cabinet vs Shadow Cabinet:
So in yesterday's analysis, we saw how the Labour Frontbench had failed to drive column inches across online news outlets. Today, I look at how the Backbenchers and @LibDems are influencing the #Brexit debate.
Read 24 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. Starting to think the chances of a deal are closer to zero. There isn't enough coherence between the media, politicians, parties and policy wonks. they are all too easily distracted by trivia and Westminster sideshows.

#Brexit thread
2. The facts are that the EU has turned down any cake and eat it proposal on regulation and divergence and I find it is wise to take them at their word when they say no cherrypicking.
3. Loosely, the proposal from May is to leverage the NI solution into a while UK solution - which the EU has already declined. If anyone in government or close to it was paying attention they would have told May that the proposal is a stillborn.
Read 19 tweets

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