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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1/ With all focus on Commons today, it’s again important to draw attention to #EU. Rarely have EU’s big-4 been confronted with such challenging domestic political situations, while also facing European-wide polls. EU’s stance on #Brexit always needs to be understood in this light
2/ Italy represents perhaps best example of all key challenges facing EU (Euro; policy mix; migration; populism), how difficult they are to resolve and how they’ll interact w European elections in May. This is what senior officials in Bxl, Berlin, Paris etc. really fret about
3/ Rightly so. @FSanti_
Coalition will remain inherently unstable, but probs here to stay;
Euro/fiscal risks haven’t disappeared, just kicked to new College;
Salvini probs biggest winner in European elex; League has very good chance of leading enlarged far-right group in new EP
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Merci. I'd add:

1/ EU's reluctance to open WA - which is a toughening of its position from several weeks ago - is partly being driven by belief that as clock winds down, MPs may actually have less not more incentive to co-operate
2/ Perception in EU of May's "Bee Gees Staying Alive" strategy is beginning to impact internal debate on length of any A50 extension. Granting one still more convenient than alternative, but why even offer UK 3 month option if nothing will be different over that timeframe?
3/ Speculation about splits between Com and Council wrong, even if talks now likely at “Juncker-Tusk-Lid-Barclay” level; EU needs to present what happens now as not another renegotiation led by Barnier/TF50. Those optics matter for May too as she aims to win backing in Commons
Read 3 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
#Brexit continues to dominate UK debate and indeed our own coverage. But what about #EU risks in 2019? Thread for us EU watchers: @CER_Grant @JeremyCliffe @MMQWalker @MehreenKhn @pmdfoster @aqbyrne @PedderSophie @tom_nuttall @clichfield1 @FSanti_ @BBCkatyaadler
1/ % of May’s deal passing are rising. DUP/Eurosceptics sounding more conciliatory; big mood change yesterday. But still v long way to go. ERG suspect May will hide behind Commons on A50 extension. Peace moves could be overtaken by events (backbench amendments)
2/ EU’s concern with Brexit is growing; no longer simple occupation of TF50, WPA50, COREPER and Sherpas; many more voices now involved as clock runs down to no-deal. But #Brexit still not biggest concern for EU—yet. So what is?
Read 17 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
Amidst all Brexit noise, here’s an analysis thread of how we see things as of now (obv moving target)!
1/ Sceptical that May’s talks with other party leaders will succeed. Not consensual, still sticking to red lines, even if she’s broadened outreach to Corbyn
2/ More important: cross-party back channels involving Cooper, Benn, Boles, Grieve and Letwin; as we now know, their plans for Parliament to find its own compromise will come on 29 Jan (when May's revised deal will also be voted on)
Read 23 tweets

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Henrik Zeberg
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As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
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Alberto Nardelli
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EU27 ambassadors met today. I am told nothing new in terms of EU position. Openness to talk about changes to the political declaration if it helps May, not the withdrawal agreement.
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信
@AndrewSErickson
"I want to warn the world about an unprecedented danger that’s threatening the very survival of open societies.

…I’ll focus on #China, where President #XiJinping wants a one-party state to reign supreme."

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Daughter of Confederacy
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The Creators of the World’s Misfortunes
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DocRock1007 🇺🇸
@DocRock1007
1. #QAnon responds to an anon's rant at @RealAlexJones by reminding us that, when it comes to divisiveness, it's

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Stu Cvrk
@STUinSD
1. Obama’s Surveillance State: The Pinnacle of the Left’s Dream to Weaponize the Federal Government .

The politics leading to the crimes are as important to understand as the abuses themselves.
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2A. Please note: this is a high-level survey and analysis. A lot of people smarter than me can take you down the various rabbit holes to describe the details of some of the topics in this chronology. My purpose is to illuminate the political motives.
Read 55 tweets

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