, 10 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
1/ From now on every Sunday — as a weekend summary — I'll focus on a handful of macro "big picture" charts that grabbed my attention.

The focus shall be on global equities, fixed income, forex, precious metals, real estate trusts, and alternative assets.
2/ As I always say, the highest profits can usually be achieved in illiquid, private & alternative asset space — but you got to know what you're doing.

Remember, your goal is to make high returns & compound your wealth. That is best achieved with assets priced correctly.
3/ US Household equity exposure correlates very closely to the subsequent 10 year US equity total return.

It is clear that US stocks are NOT priced correctly & could struggle for the coming decade or so.

Might want to look elsewhere to achieve 10, 15 or even 18% returns.
4/ What about international stocks? How are they priced?

Global stock market valuations matrix using P/B ratio & CAPE.
5/ While some international equity indices look attractive valuation wise, the group as a whole is NOT displaying any relative strength and outperformance as of yet.

No solid evidence that the US outperformace, which has lasted over a decade, is losing momentum.
6/ Where could an investor realize an above average return these days?

According to Research Affiliates, future expected returns look rather disappointing.

Only 3 assets — EM & EAFE equities, & European PE — register potential of 7% or higher over the long term.
7/ What are my equity market expectations?

US equities: not interested (returns could be too low, risks might be too high)
EU equities: not interested (could do better but potential value trap)
EM equities: interested (right timing/country selection could see 10%+ p.a.)
8/ What about other asset classes?

Fixed Income: not interested (returns will be dreadful)
Private Credit: very interested (right selection could see 10-25% p.a. in real estate debt)
Real Estate: very interested (equity potential for 20%-100%+ p.a. in value-add / development)
9/ 2016 & 2017 were wonderful of investors. By early 2018, There was a lot of bulls celebrating. A year later, there was a lot of bears celebrating.

In the end, over the last 15 months, stocks are flat. Unless you're a fantastic trader, chances are you didn't make a dime.
10/ In summary, don't waste time trying to be right like Wall Street. Instead, invest time in finding assets that are priced correctly for a large profit.

Unless you're a mega-millionaire, earning single digits is not going to make a difference (until you get old & retire).
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