1/ Breadth Update
Bull market uptrend is broken, and the high-low breadth ratio is still oversold (mind you first oversold reading failed, as failures are common in downtrends and bear markets).
Bull market uptrend is broken, and the high-low breadth ratio is still oversold (mind you first oversold reading failed, as failures are common in downtrends and bear markets).
2/ Breadth Update
Let's look at the data in other ways. If we use the 3-month moving average on the high-low ratio — we go the most oversold internals since November 2008 and October 1998 prior to that.
That's extreme! $SPY
Let's look at the data in other ways. If we use the 3-month moving average on the high-low ratio — we go the most oversold internals since November 2008 and October 1998 prior to that.
That's extreme! $SPY
3/ Breadth Update
New lows outnumbered the highs but widest margin since November 2008. More oversold then the AFC of 1998, Tech Crash of the early 2000s, 2011 EU Crisis and 2015 Commodity Bust.
New lows outnumbered the highs but widest margin since November 2008. More oversold then the AFC of 1998, Tech Crash of the early 2000s, 2011 EU Crisis and 2015 Commodity Bust.
4/ Breadth Update
Let's combine the AD line and Up-Down volume from NYSE and average it over three months. Wha we see as similar compression is the immense selling pressure of 1998 and 2008. These are the most oversold internals since the GFC. $SPY
Let's combine the AD line and Up-Down volume from NYSE and average it over three months. Wha we see as similar compression is the immense selling pressure of 1998 and 2008. These are the most oversold internals since the GFC. $SPY
5/ Breadth Update
I'm sure you heard the tweets. Only 1% of S&P stocks are above the 50-day MA. This is super rare!
Below 10% is at the bottom or beginning process of one — as we get a re-test or undercut.
Closer to 1% is so rare (only in 2002, 2008 & 2011 prior to this).
I'm sure you heard the tweets. Only 1% of S&P stocks are above the 50-day MA. This is super rare!
Below 10% is at the bottom or beginning process of one — as we get a re-test or undercut.
Closer to 1% is so rare (only in 2002, 2008 & 2011 prior to this).
6/ Breadth Update
Furthermore, only 10% of S&P stocks are above the 200-day MA. This is also quite rare and very oversold!
Other times we saw this: 1987, 2002 & 2008. Bottoms of the three major bear markets.
If we had the data, I'm sure 1974 would be included. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
Furthermore, only 10% of S&P stocks are above the 200-day MA. This is also quite rare and very oversold!
Other times we saw this: 1987, 2002 & 2008. Bottoms of the three major bear markets.
If we had the data, I'm sure 1974 would be included. $SPY $QQQ $IWM
7/ Breadth Update
Bullish Percent Index — measure counting the percentage of S&P stocks acting bullish or better yet said in an uptrend based on P&F charts — fell to readings of 11.8%.
This is extremely oversold and last seen during the ending parts of the GFC.
Bullish Percent Index — measure counting the percentage of S&P stocks acting bullish or better yet said in an uptrend based on P&F charts — fell to readings of 11.8%.
This is extremely oversold and last seen during the ending parts of the GFC.
8/ Breadth Update
NYSE Summation Index is now at the most oversold reading since March 2009, just as the major crisis was ending. Once again, quite a rare reading.
NYSE Summation Index is now at the most oversold reading since March 2009, just as the major crisis was ending. Once again, quite a rare reading.
9/ Breadth Update
There are now more than 95% of S&P components that are oversold on a short-term basis and 66% on the medium-term basis. While in saw larger spikes in previous sell-offs, this is still very oversold!
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
There are now more than 95% of S&P components that are oversold on a short-term basis and 66% on the medium-term basis. While in saw larger spikes in previous sell-offs, this is still very oversold!
$SPY $QQQ $IWM
10/ Breadth Update
It has been such a fast decline. We might finish as the worst December ever — down -15% in a month.
Which means, the spike in 20 new lows is basically the whole US market with a reading of 94% and 77% / 73% of stocks are at 50-day & 100-day lows respectively!
It has been such a fast decline. We might finish as the worst December ever — down -15% in a month.
Which means, the spike in 20 new lows is basically the whole US market with a reading of 94% and 77% / 73% of stocks are at 50-day & 100-day lows respectively!
11/ Breadth Update
Since the October 01st peak, there isn't a lot of difference between S&P 500 cap weighed classic index and the equal-weight alternative index. Everything is being thrown out, including the baby and the bath water! $SPY $RSP
Since the October 01st peak, there isn't a lot of difference between S&P 500 cap weighed classic index and the equal-weight alternative index. Everything is being thrown out, including the baby and the bath water! $SPY $RSP
12/ Breadth Update
I remember your tweets in 2018 about the Advance-Decine line being bullish. Yeah, you. I remember. 😂
It didn't work — just like other indicators don't always work. So instead of data mining the studies, better to analyze the context and overall situation.
I remember your tweets in 2018 about the Advance-Decine line being bullish. Yeah, you. I remember. 😂
It didn't work — just like other indicators don't always work. So instead of data mining the studies, better to analyze the context and overall situation.
13/ Breadth Update
Despite all the selling, $TRIN jus didn't spike all that much. Would like to see this indicator at readings of 1.5 (averaged over a one-month time frame), but it just hasn't managed to do so (yet).
Despite all the selling, $TRIN jus didn't spike all that much. Would like to see this indicator at readings of 1.5 (averaged over a one-month time frame), but it just hasn't managed to do so (yet).
