Profile picture
IMReturnsManager
@IMRiskManager
, 18 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
Trying to understand the Macro, The Big Picture of the Markets.
A bird's eye view of the fundamentals.
Purpose of the thread is to consolidate interviews/opinions at one place.
#Macro
#TheBigPicture
#Fundamentals
RBI is likely to stay on hold, as inflation is likely to remain within its medium-term target of 4%, India's GDP growth to remain robust in 2019, supported by tailwinds from recent policy reforms (GST and bankruptcy code implementation)

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…
Global growth will moderate. Developed markets will slow but emerging markets will stabilize. The Federal Reserve is expected to pause in the middle of this year. US dollar has peaked and EM inflation is at a 15-year low. EMs are in a better shape.

moneycontrol.com/news/business/…
Growth slowdown is something that is going to happen globally be it in the US, China or elsewhere. This is because we have seen a huge amount of stimulus in the past. The monetary policy, which was too loose, is getting tightened now.

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert…
Any fiscal slippage, RBI’s interest rate trajectory, outcome of the general elections and the revival of corporate earnings would be key monitorables. Macro parameters such as oil prices, bond yields and liquidity, now appear to have turned favorable

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…
The Reserve Bank of India will definitely shift its stance from "calibrated tightening" to neutral in the next policy. Possibility of a rate cut sometime in the April to July period. Fiscal deficit at worst will be 3.5 percent for FY19

moneycontrol.com/news/business/…
If the providing of QE took 10 years to help the economy (and only a tiny fraction of it was actually responsible) then the taking away of this money won’t do much.
@deepakshenoy

capitalmind.in/2018/12/the-ma…
Lower oil prices and lower interest rates can lead to visible earnings growth
There may be some pressure on rural consumption this year
We are looking at sectors, which have significant order flows
Our investment philosophy is routed in return on earnings
economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert…
Oil prices corrected from $85 to $55-60 range, 10-year yield down from 8.25 to 7.5, rupee back from 74 to 69-70, banking liquidity from Rs 1,50,000 crore negative is now roughly about Rs 45,000-50,000 crore negative.

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert…
-BofAML sees double-digit fall in Indian stocks in first half of 2019.
-Domestic market is over-valued.
-Only sector that can work for investors is banking, as the lenders come out of the dud assets problem.

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…
Volatility in the first half of 2019 may come from global politics.
Much of the pain in midcap and smallcap stocks has come out.
Private sector banks continue to be fancied by investors, and rightly so.

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert…
Globally, the overarching themes would be trade war and its outcome, rate increase/monetary tightening and geopolitical stability, while in India, health of its financial system, the outcome of general elections...

moneycontrol.com/news/business/…
RBI to hold rates in H1CY19, Positive on PSBs, insurance companies, neutral on tech, underweight on auto

moneycontrol.com/news/business/…
In US there is a clear indication of a slowdown. This quarter’s earnings will be little bit under pressure. It is early days for a rate cut because while the inflation footprint is good, the overall growth, GDP and GVA have all been pretty good.

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert…
India Inc’s profit-to-GDP ratio at a 15 year low

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…
Nomura sees GDP slowing to 6.6% in H1 on polls, global slowdown

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks…
Markets will rally after elections. So it is just a consolidation phase for the next three months. We are in a cycle in terms of where it is going to turn around upwards in a few months

economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/expert…
The fourth quarter results are likely to be weak as companies are unlikely to take big decisions before the general elections

goo.gl/t24PWu
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to IMReturnsManager
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#Macro #TheBigPicture #Fundamentals

More from @IMRiskManager see all

Profile picture
IMReturnsManager
@IMRiskManager
Introducing Statistics- A Graphic Guide by Eileen Magnello
Week-1
#WeekendReading
#LearningTogether
1 The word “statistics” is derived from the Latin status, which led to the Italian word statista, first used in the 16th century, referring to a statist or statesman – someone concerned with matters of the state.
2 It was the Scottish landowner and first president of the Board of Agriculture, Sir John Sinclair (1754–1834), who introduced the word “statistics” into the English language in 1798 in his Statistical Account of Scotland.
Read 25 tweets
Profile picture
IMReturnsManager
@IMRiskManager
Atomic Habits by @JamesClear week-4
This book is taking longer to finish but for all the right reasons.
Reading a book is 1 thing but applying what u learn from it is quite another but this time its different. Have made so changes, incorporated new routines so no hurry to finish
1. The 2nd Law of Behavior Change is make it attractive.
The more attractive an opportunity is, the more likely it is to become habit-forming.
2. Habits are a dopamine-driven feedback loop. When dopamine rises, so does our motivation to act.
When it comes to habits, the key takeaway is this: dopamine is released not only when you experience pleasure, but also when you anticipate it.
Read 19 tweets
Profile picture
IMReturnsManager
@IMRiskManager
Atomic Habits by @JamesClear week-3
Not good at mind maps but will try to use them to understand context.
#WeekendReading
#LearningTogether
1. Sharing the chapter wise outline of the book once again.
2. Chapter-3
How to build better Habits in 4 simple steps.
Read 22 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Ashley T. Rubin
@ashleytrubin
Wow, people really liked my reading guide template for students. So, here are some slides from lecture about getting through the reading. #Thread
(1) You have a lot going on in your life and school might not be your #1 priority. But you still need to do the reading, but you don't have to read every word of it. Here are some ways you can skim, arranged from least time to more time.
(2) Students frequently take too many notes--you read that right! When you are just starting out, it seems like EVERYTHING is important. It's not. Here are some things I like to focus on: jargon, context, and especially stories.
Read 7 tweets
Profile picture
Xhosa is 🔥🔥🇿🇦
@TakaTina1
11 February 1990, the day uTata Nelson Mandela was released from Robben Island

...And the day i met Lerato Kganyago❤

#Thread
Begining of February 1990 the country became tense, we just heard that something big was about to happen.
I just got promoted to Senior Management at a Cotton Manufacturing company that made blankets for Robben Island Prisoners.
Read 30 tweets
Profile picture
AeroDynamic Women
@AeroWomen
2nd #Thread of responses from women in aerodynamics to the question, 'what do you currently see as being the major obstacle to women entering your field?'

Responses incl gender career stereotypes from an early age, lack of self-esteem and lack of female role models #WomeninSTEM
1. "I think that there is not enough awareness of female role-models in my field. There need to be more initiatives that allow young women to connect with female role-models so that they can be inspired and motivated to follow in their footsteps."
2. "Discouragement from teachers in high school to pursue a STEM career and an unwelcoming atmosphere in technical universities."
Read 86 tweets
Profile picture
AeroDynamic Women
@AeroWomen
1st #Thread of responses from women in aerodynamics to the question, 'what barriers/challenges have you faced/overcome in your career path?'

Overwhelmingly, discrimination, issues related to being the only woman in their place of work, and childcare were cited most #WomeninSTEM
1. "In several of my positions, I have been the first woman hired. There have been challenges proving that I am as intelligent and capable as my male colleagues. I have faced bias, as well as discrimination in pay and acknowledgment of my capabilities."
2. "I have not had any barrier for being a woman but I think sometime I have created my own barriers: low ambition, being too prudent and now I realize I had to think bigger to achieve bigger things. My main challenge has being to juggle my work and my role as mum of 3 children."
Read 61 tweets
Profile picture
David ALADE
@real_DavidALADE
2018 has been a great year and I have recounted on the great things that happened in it already here 👇

#Thread is the list books I consumed during the year

1. It started with Art of War - Sun Tzu
Valuable strategy in the book for life and business, I have it in my 2019 list again

2. Zero to One - @peterthiel
Impressive look into the art of innovation
3. Blue Ocean Strategy - Renée and Chan
One of the best reads of 2018
I went on recommending it throughout the year.

A compelling view of how to carve for your organization a strategy that wins long enough. Sequel to it Blue Ocean Shift (not read yet) @BlueOceanStrtgy
Read 21 tweets

Trending hashtags

#mobile #NeoFaceReveal #BrandMarketing #CityNext #HIV #Startups #FakeNews #PatriotsUnited #OIGReport #FaceRecognition #Property #socialmedia #dialysis #Cleanup #ContentCuration #Aadhaar #AfricaCareerChat #NeoFaceWatch #brand #Portals #Greece #Branding #DigitalArmy #SuburbanErasure #LeavingNeverland
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!