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The Brexiteer MP calculation is now between the 'A' path and 'B' path:
A: Vote for May's Deal.
Two opportunities:
• Impede the legislation enacting the vote up to end-June thus threatening accidental No Deal.
• enact the vote; new PM to reorient UK goals during transition.
A: Vote for May's Deal.
Two opportunities:
• Impede the legislation enacting the vote up to end-June thus threatening accidental No Deal.
• enact the vote; new PM to reorient UK goals during transition.
B: Reject May's Deal and support a 21-month Art50 extension.
Three opportunities:
• New PM to reorient UK policy/red lines after Art50 extended.
• Much more time to prep for No Deal.
• Something might turn up.
Three opportunities:
• New PM to reorient UK policy/red lines after Art50 extended.
• Much more time to prep for No Deal.
• Something might turn up.
'A' delivers exit from EU membership, thereby turning Remain into Rejoin (harder). But it saddles UK with a corpse of a deal. The new PM will be shackled to it.
'B' provides a fresh start to get it right. And increases prospect of No Deal. But also increases prospect of Remain.
'B' provides a fresh start to get it right. And increases prospect of No Deal. But also increases prospect of Remain.
To my mind, the alleged opportunities of 'A' look like pie in the sky and will cause even greater political division.
The opportunities of 'B' are better but also keeps the prospect of Remain in play - a clear risk to Brexiteers.
The opportunities of 'B' are better but also keeps the prospect of Remain in play - a clear risk to Brexiteers.
'A' is therefore the short game (and arguably the short-sighted game), while 'B' is the long game.
'B' is an answer for those who said (and still say) "even Remain is better than May's Deal".
'B' is an answer for those who said (and still say) "even Remain is better than May's Deal".
Both are a gamble.
'A' could lead to Remain-minus.
'B' could lead to Remain.
We are where we are. The question for Leavers is which is better? The answer may come down to whether you see an opportunity in Remain (and the associated political turbulence).
Time to choose.
'A' could lead to Remain-minus.
'B' could lead to Remain.
We are where we are. The question for Leavers is which is better? The answer may come down to whether you see an opportunity in Remain (and the associated political turbulence).
Time to choose.
The 'B' faction speaks....
