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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
A good example of the Remain side saying "Oh that'll never happen" and being proved wrong.

A big feeder of euroscepticism.

(And an enjoyable thread in general).
"The EU sticking rigidly to its four freedoms - Oh that'll never happen." - Blair, Clegg, Cameron.

"The EU becoming a federal state - Oh that'll never happen"...

You see the issue.
This touches on the very core of Leave and why it animates people, as I attempt to explain here....

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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
The Brexiteer MP calculation is now between the 'A' path and 'B' path:

A: Vote for May's Deal.
Two opportunities:
• Impede the legislation enacting the vote up to end-June thus threatening accidental No Deal.
• enact the vote; new PM to reorient UK goals during transition.
B: Reject May's Deal and support a 21-month Art50 extension.
Three opportunities:
• New PM to reorient UK policy/red lines after Art50 extended.
• Much more time to prep for No Deal.
• Something might turn up.
'A' delivers exit from EU membership, thereby turning Remain into Rejoin (harder). But it saddles UK with a corpse of a deal. The new PM will be shackled to it.

'B' provides a fresh start to get it right. And increases prospect of No Deal. But also increases prospect of Remain.
Read 7 tweets
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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
Why have so few Leavers given up on Brexit despite Leave MPs and other Leave figures in a daily war with facts, reality & reason?

I suggest it's because one can't just say it's botched and stop there. It requires 'confessions' - even if only to oneself. A high bar. /1
In particular, main Leave narratives:
1. were wrong, e.g. fastest deal in history etc.
2. never accounted for Northern Ireland.
3. never properly considered customs.
4. relied on a very small number of 'house experts' e.g. Minford, North, Howe, Rotherham to underpin them. /2
In other words, a level of wrongness that was gratingly evident to opponents all the way back to the start of the referendum campaign.

It's *not* just a wrongness arising from these specific circumstances brought about by the May Govt.

Again, a high bar. /3
Read 6 tweets
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Roland Smith
@rolandmcs
There's a view going around that we almost need No Deal just to finally prove to voters that No Dealers are charlatans, and because without No Deal, they'll forever spin magical yarns about "what might have been if it weren't for those traitors".

I think this is mistaken.... /1
It grossly underestimates No Dealers' willingness to force the blame onto someone else. Indeed their excuses are already in:
1. "Remoaners May and Hammond didn't prepare."
2. "The EU wanted to outrageously lock us into a 'never-escape backstop' ". /2
Also, No Deal has been *so* doom-laden that almost no matter what happens under such a scenario, it could seem like an improvement on the expectation.

Expectation management has been rotten.

So no, I don't buy this theory. /3
Read 3 tweets

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