, 19 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Stark: When recommending 80% cut a decade ago the calculation was based on avoiding 2C and high danger scenario or 4C.
But since then emissions have kept rising, warming has continued and focus on 1.5C has arise, and we know lots more about costs of decarbonization. We need to re-run the exercise.
Stark jokes that sometimes he thinks an industry has developed to overcomplicate climate change and how we should respond. We have to stop burning fossil fuels or sequester emissions or both.
There are more carbon reserves than we can burn and on current trajectory we will burn through 1.5C budget in less than 25 years.
Climate change is now something we experience, it is not a future problem, and emissions continue to rise...
We have not yet made the decisive leap that will allow us to do something about those rising temperatures. Policy has moved us off a 4C trajectory, but we are on 3C and nowhere near 1.5C.
It is tempting to call it a climate crisis, but it is a climate choice. And it is an inescapable choice. Make the transition now or wait and have it forced upon us later.
UK can feel 'very proud' of decoupling emissions and growth, says Stark, but whether we can hold our world leading position depends on what comes next. Sweden, France and EU all now have or working on net zero plans.
Stark says reassessment has found the costs of some parts of the transition - estimated at 1-2% GDP - are much lower than predicted a decade ago. In some areas costs are negative. Transition would save you money.
Innovation driven by policy has led to staggering costs falls. Clean electricity and increasingly surface transport now seeing this phenomenon.
However, CCC was overoptimistic on costs in some areas - eg nuclear - and hard to decarbonize areas have got even more daunting. The overall story on costs is positive, but there are challenging areas. Effective policy is key.
Stark: We will struggle to make level of progress needed without a fundamental review of how costs are allocated. However good news is policy is increasingly about enabling investment that wants to get on and happen.
We have learnt how to do this. A transition to a net zero emission economy is now technically possible. Electrification takes us a long way, hydrogen can plug gaps, offsets can scale to cover few remaining area.
It is possible, says Stark, but the scale of the challenge is staggering. We need to tackle emissions in every sector at once. Many of the challenges are now infrastructure challenges. We will have to consider asset lives and even scrappage.
Prices are key, says Stark, but so is speed. 20 years ago prices could have driven it, but we left it too late and are now against hard scientific deadlines. We may now need regulation and backstops.
Eg 2040 phase out for conventional cars is too late.
UK needs much less piecemeal approach across government. It needs cross sector and cross government coordination.
Stark says Climate Change Act will be tested like never before in coming months. Transition will need leadership from the top of government. It must be led from the centre. 'We are very unlikely to recommend a loosening of the targets'
Ends by saying greater ambition in targets may require greater flexibility on how they are met (code for offsets and trading), but if you have greater flexibility you really need strong leadership.
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