Thread
Lot of opeds/articles from India questioning why Modi is soft on China or not able to take punitive measures for Masood Azhar listing issue.
But the view point of someone sitting on the Indian PM’s chair faced with ground realities will be quite different.
Lot of opeds/articles from India questioning why Modi is soft on China or not able to take punitive measures for Masood Azhar listing issue.
But the view point of someone sitting on the Indian PM’s chair faced with ground realities will be quite different.
First off, any equation of India & China mostly by western writers/leaders/commentators is off by around 3 decades as it was only in the early 80’s when both countries had comparable economic/military might.
The economic &military power asymmetry now is heavily in China’s favor.
The economic &military power asymmetry now is heavily in China’s favor.
In terms of economy China’s GDP is around $ 14 trillion while India’s economy is around $ 2.30 trillion.
China has around $ 3 trillion in reserves while India is around $ 400 bn.
As per 2017 data from WB, China’s GDP per capita is $8,827, and India’s is $1,942.
China has around $ 3 trillion in reserves while India is around $ 400 bn.
As per 2017 data from WB, China’s GDP per capita is $8,827, and India’s is $1,942.
India may currently enjoy a faster GDP growth rate but given much smaller base this is insignificant.
China adds around half of India’s GDP every year to its economy.
To add what China adds every year India has to grow by around 40% a year & real growth at that (ToI).
China adds around half of India’s GDP every year to its economy.
To add what China adds every year India has to grow by around 40% a year & real growth at that (ToI).
China’s higher growth is not just due its 1 party authoritarian system.
Bulk of its population is along its coastal belt areas.
This favors manufacturing & trade where China dominates.
By contrast bulk of Indian population are in the interior region or BIMARU states.
Bulk of its population is along its coastal belt areas.
This favors manufacturing & trade where China dominates.
By contrast bulk of Indian population are in the interior region or BIMARU states.
China’s annual military budget is around $220 bn while India is around $ 55 bn or 1/4th of China.
China has around 2 to 3 times the naval assets & almost double the air assets.
China’s army currently has around double the manpower but is rapidly reducing and modernizing them.
China has around 2 to 3 times the naval assets & almost double the air assets.
China’s army currently has around double the manpower but is rapidly reducing and modernizing them.
By contrast given limited defense budget & huge manpower a bulk of India’s defense budget goes in salaries/maintenance & not in equipment & modernization.
Also given the lack of an indigenous military industry most arms are imported including ammunitions with 10 day war stock.
Also given the lack of an indigenous military industry most arms are imported including ammunitions with 10 day war stock.
In terms of internal security China has only two restive regions in Xinjiang with 10 mn people & Tibet with around 6/7 mn.
India has to deal with many more in Kashmir, North-East and the Naxals along its tribal belt in Central India.
There are also growing religious tensions.
India has to deal with many more in Kashmir, North-East and the Naxals along its tribal belt in Central India.
There are also growing religious tensions.
In geostrategy China has a huge advantage in its ‘All Weather Friend’ Pakistan which is India’s sworn enemy especially after 71.
A 2 front challenge.
The entire Pakistani missile tech and a sizeable section of nuclear tech is from China. Now aircrafts.
Big OBOR investment too.
A 2 front challenge.
The entire Pakistani missile tech and a sizeable section of nuclear tech is from China. Now aircrafts.
Big OBOR investment too.
Modi would be having all the above inputs and much more.
Explains muted reaction to JeM Chief listing issue and no trade action.
Given the power asymmetry India has adopted a careful & defensive posture on China only willing to defend but not to offend or initiate challenge.
Explains muted reaction to JeM Chief listing issue and no trade action.
Given the power asymmetry India has adopted a careful & defensive posture on China only willing to defend but not to offend or initiate challenge.
The real challenge to China is not from any of its Asian neighbors.
It is from the developed west led by the US and allies anxious about China’s growing strength and muscular foreign policy and its implications on them in terms of military, trade, global clout, tech etc.
It is from the developed west led by the US and allies anxious about China’s growing strength and muscular foreign policy and its implications on them in terms of military, trade, global clout, tech etc.
In terms of 2019 polls action against Pak gives Modi dividends but any tango with China can damage his political career.
Last Indian PM who ‘stood upto’ China, albeit unprepared, through ‘Forward Policy’ was Nehru.
The 62 war hit India’s international standing and broke Nehru.
Last Indian PM who ‘stood upto’ China, albeit unprepared, through ‘Forward Policy’ was Nehru.
The 62 war hit India’s international standing and broke Nehru.
In China worldview its main challenger/enemy is the US which backs Japan & S. Korea.
Post 62 & until Bush/Manmohan’s nuclear deal it never saw India as a major challenger but India’s economic rise & its efforts to secure itself with ties to US was seen as a challenge.
Post 62 & until Bush/Manmohan’s nuclear deal it never saw India as a major challenger but India’s economic rise & its efforts to secure itself with ties to US was seen as a challenge.
Of course domestic political developments in China with the elevation of Xi and its impact on China’s Foreign Policy cannot be ignored.
For this my February 2018 thread on Xi’s then elevation has some analysis
For this my February 2018 thread on Xi’s then elevation has some analysis
Important article/podcast to understand why a West which once helped in China’s rise through investments & opening markets & saw it as a future partner is now rapidly revising its views.
China never become more liberal, benign or friendlier as expected. warontherocks.com/2019/03/jaw-ja…
China never become more liberal, benign or friendlier as expected. warontherocks.com/2019/03/jaw-ja…
Coming back to India being a defensive power & China an increasingly muscular one.
This very important statement from China for first time gaurantees Pak territory/sovty weeks after Balakot.
India does not enjoy similar commitments from USA or the west.
indianexpress.com/article/world/…
This very important statement from China for first time gaurantees Pak territory/sovty weeks after Balakot.
India does not enjoy similar commitments from USA or the west.
indianexpress.com/article/world/…
China just deployed its troops 90 km from India’s international border in Sindh province of Pakistan.
Move is purportedly to safeguard its CPEC coal mines there but it comes after Balakot.
Shows concern for investment in Pak & sends a signal to India.
google.com/amp/s/sputnikn…
Move is purportedly to safeguard its CPEC coal mines there but it comes after Balakot.
Shows concern for investment in Pak & sends a signal to India.
google.com/amp/s/sputnikn…
So is China an invincible and inevitable superpower ?
My view is not really.
Apart from external challenges with the West getting more firm on it with joint patrols on South China Sea , Huawei actions & trade talks - it also has huge internal economic and political challenges.
My view is not really.
Apart from external challenges with the West getting more firm on it with joint patrols on South China Sea , Huawei actions & trade talks - it also has huge internal economic and political challenges.
On the economic front China’s economy slowed down to 6.6% in 2018 which is the lowest in three decades.
Given how data is fudged international experts say real growth could be 5%.
It has $ 34 trillion in private & public debt higher than the US national debt of $ 22 trillion.
Given how data is fudged international experts say real growth could be 5%.
It has $ 34 trillion in private & public debt higher than the US national debt of $ 22 trillion.
A chunk of this debt was knee jerk reaction to the 2008 crisis while a huge chunk is in non-productive over investments like large & empty housing projects.
Large loans to inefficient state owned enterprises & local govts also among them.
Then there is non-FI unofficial loans.
Large loans to inefficient state owned enterprises & local govts also among them.
Then there is non-FI unofficial loans.
A toxic combination of high debt at 266% of GDP & slow growth is far more impactful than any trade war.
Entire legitimacy of Communist party to rule unopposed is understanding that it will provide economic prosperity.
This legitimacy is challenged when prosperity is hampered.
Entire legitimacy of Communist party to rule unopposed is understanding that it will provide economic prosperity.
This legitimacy is challenged when prosperity is hampered.
Unable to deliver on economic growth & faced with a more demanding/aware population CCP is trying to strengthen ideological aspects & has increased repression in recent years.
This in part explains the rise of Xi as his primary role is to strengthen CCP rule & ideology.
This in part explains the rise of Xi as his primary role is to strengthen CCP rule & ideology.
The CCP ironically does not trust its own people & is very afraid of any internal challenge to its power.
This explains why its internal security budget is next to its defense budget coupled with increased repression, ill treatment of minorities, great firewall, crackdown etc.
This explains why its internal security budget is next to its defense budget coupled with increased repression, ill treatment of minorities, great firewall, crackdown etc.
One symptom of this is the heightened & unprecedented crackdown on activists, lawyers, religious groups and different groups within China.
An example is the modern day Gulags in Xinjiang where 1 mn civilians or 10% of the Uighur population are locked up and mistreated.
An example is the modern day Gulags in Xinjiang where 1 mn civilians or 10% of the Uighur population are locked up and mistreated.
China also has a huge tech challenge on its hands.
Contrary to past theory that China can just steal defense and high tech and replicate it- research has shown that China has not been able to do so and is behind.
Paper on this shared by @d_jaishankar mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.11…
Contrary to past theory that China can just steal defense and high tech and replicate it- research has shown that China has not been able to do so and is behind.
Paper on this shared by @d_jaishankar mitpressjournals.org/doi/full/10.11…
@d_jaishankar Yes e-commerce & tech is one bright spot for China with Tencent, Alibaba, Huawei etc.
While they are good companies their association with CCP is starting to pose real market/trust problems in west.
Recent actions against Huawei & call for more scrutiny.
While they are good companies their association with CCP is starting to pose real market/trust problems in west.
Recent actions against Huawei & call for more scrutiny.
@d_jaishankar Stellar article on the reason for India’s overspend on men over arms and its implications.
firstpost.com/india/governme…
firstpost.com/india/governme…
