Thread by @SteveBakerHW

“Indicative votes” are a dreadful idea, apparently to force upon us what could not be achieved through the subterfuge of the Withdrawal Agreement: Customs Union (CU), against the Conservative manifesto

In any meaningful sense, Brexit would be lost

1/12

The excuse, free circulation of goods, is not achieved with *a* or *the* CU

*A* CU, requires movement certificates into the EU

In both *a* and *the* CU, all checks other than rules of origin are derived from the rules of the EU “single market” (SM)

2/12

So to get free circulation through CU, you need the SM too

That means no scope for domestic regulatory changes or independent trade policy: all countries will need us to have regulatory flexibility to do trade deals

3/12

Our manifesto (bit.ly/2Fv92kv) rightly said:

“As we leave the European Union, we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union but we will seek a deep and special partnership including a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement.”

4/12

As this chart from @Bloomberg shows, the only countries in the CU and SM/EEA are in the EU

If we are in both, there can be no economic advantages to leaving

The EU would love it and likely replace the backstop with both, forever: Brexit would be over

5/12

Any EEA option would make the UK a rule-taker and it would be difficult to leave.

Let’s not confuse the legal position with political reality: once big business has locked into the EEA rules, they will cry cliff edge if we ever try to take back control. 

6/12

No EEA member has been able to change or veto EEA rules, and the EU position on this is hardening, not softening.

Ask the Norwegians about the Postal Directive they tried to resist. They were penalised across other unrelated sectors such as fisheries.

7/12

The UK and the CIty needs a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with strong financial services equivalence arrangements.

In order to get that from the EU, we need leverage: we must be able to negotiate on goods and agrifood: we cannot be in customs union

8/12

We would also need to negotiate our way into the EEA, against the members: we would disturb the balance among the small non-EU EEA countries

So CU and EEA options don’t solve anything, but an FTA does allow minimising customs disruptions, and permit regulatory cooperation

9/12

If we go for CU, we will lose all our opportunities and leverage with other countries

The US are ready to negotiate but they go into primaries next Spring

Joining CPTPP as one of the early accession countries would be lost

We need to work with global partners

10/12

Long extension means much more uncertainty for much longer – who wants another several months or two years of what we have had?

Far better to exit now and table legal text for an offer to match the EU’s of March last year: bit.ly/EUofferMar

11/12

Customs Union cannot meet our objectives as we leave the EU

It’s time for #PlanAPlus: bit.ly/PLANAPlus

And we get there via #BetterDeal: bit.ly/BetterDealPDF

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