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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 7 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
“Customs union” is a technical term, @bbcnickrobinson. “Customs arrangement” is not.

A customs union has the same external tariffs on imports from outside the group.

A customs arrangement can be any kind of arrangement involving customs. Could be anything.

Thread 1/7
What is a customs union?

The WTO’s simple definition wto.org/english/thewto…

2/7 GLOSSARY TERM — customs union —Members apply a common external tariff (e.g. the European Union)
Customs unions are defined in Par 8, Art24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, on trade in goods)

wto.org/english/docs_e…

It applies “substantially the same duties and other regulations of commerce … to the trade of territories not included in the union”

3/7 Screenshot of GATT Article 24 (XXIV) paragraph 8
The types and implications of customs unions are discussed at some length here:

uktradeforum.net/2018/01/15/cus…

4/7 Screenshot of the definition in the linked blog post
.@uk_tpo has this little video on “rolling over” EU free trade agreements if the UK has no customs union with the EU

WARNING! Includes “rules of origin”, “diagonal cumulation”

vimeo.com/252854131

5/7
And this @uk_tpo in-depth blog on the same subject

WARNING! Also includes “rules of origin”, “diagonal cumulation”

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/2017/09/…

6/7 Screenshot of extract from blog, reference to more than 50 countries with EU FTAs
Finally, how many customs unions are there in the world?

The WTO’s database lists 23 (29 if each of the six EU enlargements are counted separately)

rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicSearc…

Search by criteria & choose: Coverage=goods, Type of agreement=customs union

7/7 Screenshot of database search criteria
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I'd add one crucial point to @DmitryOpines's thread.

Leaving the EU with no deal eventually, is not very good for the UK, but you could make a case for it.

Leaving it overnight ("crashing out") is far, far worse.

1/4
That's something @ShankerASingham misses out completely in his letter to the @ft

Yes, lots of countries trade well with the EU “on WTO terms”. If, like them, the UK had never been in the Single Market, it would do well on WTO terms too.

2/4
Just one example: this clip is from a longer @BBCNewsnight report on the medicines a dialysis patient needs. Given enough time to make new arrangements (months), she would be guaranteed medicines & ability to travel.

No deal on March 29? No hope.

3/4
Read 5 tweets
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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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So, the Government has now released a summary of its legal advice on Brexit (which, according to press accounts, is actually much much longer than the secret legal advice itself ie it’s been massively padded).

In the document, you’ll that what it does

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
is summarise sections of the Withdrawal Agreement (with some references to the Political Declaration) and explains their consequences. Not in a clear, simple way, oh no. That would be too easy...

Anyway, with proviso that I am NOT a lawyer (hopefully actual lawyers can weigh in)
here are potential smoking guns I spotted in a quick read through:

1. p3 paragraph 2 reminds us that the EU treaties cease on Exit Day ie including all the trade agreements the EU has with third countries

2. p4 paragraph 9: EU law enshrined by WA trumps UK law if they differ
Read 18 tweets
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#Köthen: Der Verstorbene hat einen Schlag ins Gesicht (an der Lippe feststellbar) bekommen, ging danach zu Boden und verstarb an einem #Herzinfarkt. Rechtsmedizin hat keinen Hinweis auf Tritte, sonstige Schläge, Messerstiche.

PK zur Tathergang auf @ntvde jetzt.
Im Netz verbreitete Audio-Datei mit angeblichem "Totschlagen" von der Zeugin selbst gegenüber Polizei weitgehend relativiert.

Nicht, dass das für die Hetzer, Neonazis oder #AfD eine Rolle spielen würde.

#Köthen
Schwere Herzkrankheit des Verstorbenen seit Geburt, mehrere Herzoperationen danach, versagensbereites Herz durch das es jederzeit zu einem Herzinfarkt kommen konnte.

Ob jemand strafrechtlich verantwortlich ist für den Herzinfarkt, ist im Ermittlungsverfahren.

#Köthen #PK
Read 3 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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Back in Berlin from this year's British-German #Königswinter Conference.

The best summary was incidentally provided by a border guard at Heathrow, who said to me upon seeing my destination:

"Please tell your friends we are still European". /1
A few more impressions: Everything started off with a clear political signal as the German official delegation arrived in the UK en route from Dublin.

Main message: EU-27 are the priority, and Berlin is 100% behind Ireland. /2
Most striking was the mood between Germans and Brits:

Brexit now seems to be more and more an accepted reality, with less grudge.

The deep regret is still there, though with a willingness to look ahead. /3
Read 7 tweets

Trending hashtags

#economists #IndependenceDay #Protocol #Healthcare #FinancialCrash #OsamaBinLaden #SPS #workers #executive #FTA #certification #Kavanaugh #exhaustion #JEEPA #duty #DeepState #EUWithdrawalAct #TariffsAreTaxes #PsyOp #importation #lock #Saudis #obligations #UK #populist

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