,
8 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
1. It's early, but let's talk electoral consequences. Obviously the #1 electoral consequence of any investigation is if it successfully nails its target, and #2 is the cloud of an ongoing probe. But what about when one ends without the scalp?
2. End of this probe is unlikely to tamp down D base rage at Trump or affect turnout of marginal D voters. It could help wavering Rs at the margins. But there's one group where investigations may matter a lot: suburban voters who deserted GOP in 2018.
3. A geographically crucial (eg, suburban) segment of 2018 D House voters had voted for Rs once or more in 2010-2012-2014-2016. (Some of them bailed in 2016 at the sight of Trump) These were generally not voters who took a left on economic issues or traditional R social stances.
4. These were voters to whom a Congressional check on Trump was important. Partly due to his personality & his dramatic acts on immigration & trade, but also out of concern over scandals & investigations.
5. Given that these are recent R voters, the end of the centerpiece Trump scandal probe may remove an obstacle to voters who may be happy with the economy & alarmed at the Dems' left-wing tilt coming home. For Ds, it raises the need to keep other probes/scandals in the news.
6. Republicans should not be complacent; some of these voters are just not coming back until Trump is gone, because they're appalled by him. The easiest gets are those who held their noses in 2016 due to the Hillary email scandal, & got spooked when Trump had his own probe.
7. How big a factor is the vote of suburbanites whose chief concern with Trump is scandals and investigations? Probably not that large, but potentially decisive in close races, especially House districts that are heavily suburban & were drawn to lean R.
8. The other obvious outcome: it'll be a *lot* harder not only to beat Trump in a primary (always a longshot) but even now to recruit a vaguely plausible challenger.
