Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #article50

Most recents (24)

#Brexit ALREADY costs UK £1bn pw as we Hit Holidays! @GoldmanSachs put that lower at £600m. but I'm looking at 2+% less GDP (than would have been); more Govt Debt (+interest); the growing impact of #Brexodus on jobs/taxtake; £devaln.&inflation creep, reducing Property values.1/20
@GoldmanSachs Am puzzled & mortified? that UK's so-called Major Political Parties @Conservatives @UKLabour seem umbilically disconnected? from the financial IMPACT of their recent (let's say) 'accidental collusions' and Brexit-Birth-Giving! Why the co-incidental & costly numeracy lapse? 2/20
@GoldmanSachs @Conservatives @UKLabour Assuming that (eg) @bankofengland @hmtreasury @ICAEW @The_IoD @cbicarolyn @FrancesOGrady are aware of UK's #Brexit financial haemorrhage? eg Govt Debt, Jobs/Tax, Businesses (all sizes), Individuals - there may be varying estimates? but agreement that a HUGE hit is ongoing! 3/20
Read 25 tweets
Today is possibly .@theresa_may's last day as PM, if .@BorisJohnson can command a majority (which is in some doubt...)

So it's a great opportunity to look back at some of the *highlights* of Mrs May's premiership in memes👇
13 JUL 2016: May was appointed as PM and named her Cabinet shortly thereafter, surprising many by giving 3 of the top #Brexit-related jobs to arch-brexiters Boris Johnson, David Davis & Liam Fox. Sheer folly, or genius in making them own what they'd sold? Sadly, the former😢
/1.
5 OCT 2016: With such a narrow result, the country could be forgiven for expecting May to propose a consensual solution, as Norway PM Erna Solberg had done in a similar situation. Most Remainers would've accepted #Norway.

May's #CitizensOfNowhere speech crushed all hope.
/2.
Read 71 tweets
So what is the impact of Johnson's personal difficulties, and stumbling media performances, on likely #Brexit outcomes?

I've tried to work it out in Series 3, V6 of my #BrexitDiagram
This has an 80% chance of Johnson winning, 20% chance for Hunt. This is based on the state of betting as outlined by @MSmithsonPB.

I will adjust that if chances for the candidates change.

I have then tried to work out what each of them would actually *do* once elected.
Outcomes, and trend in comparison to V5 from 13 June
General Election 61% ⬇️
#PeoplesVote 4% ⬇️
No Deal 19% ↔️
Further #Article50 Extension 8% (re-entry)
Brexit with a Deal 8% ⬆️
Read 4 tweets
Tired of #Brexit?

Then argue for a #PeoplesVote

Sounds odd. But let me explain.
There’s no majority for any specific Brexit variant in the Commons.

About 100 MPs want No Deal
200 MPs want the Deal that’s on the table
200 MPs want some non specified 🦄 Brexit
100 MPs want to Remain
So “just get on with it!” is a useless demand.

Get on with *what version* of Brexit exactly?
Read 11 tweets
Been holding off on posting this #Thread regarding the #LocalElection2019 going on in England and Northern Ireland, but the results are fascinating to me here in Scotland for sure. There is a clear #RemainBacklash going on and this is HUGE, shall go into more detail on why.
Clearly, the #LocalElections2019 is one of the biggest elections in history for the Lib Dems and the biggest night for the Green Party, there is been a massive shift towards these two parties over the usual Tories and Labour, but why is that? Clearly, #Brexit is a big part of why
How the Tories and Labour have handled #Brexit is nothing short of embarrassing, both these parties have refused to support a #PeoplesVote and give us a second say on leaving the EU. Yet Lib Dems and Green Party have been consistent since the get-go as remain parties.
Read 11 tweets
The @Telegraph is wrong to say MEPs represent a zombie Parliament.

They are chosen by you, the electorate, and work (yes, work) for a fully active and responsive legislature. #EPfactsUK Thread.
The European Parliament is jointly responsible for passing nearly 90% of new EU law.

See p.33 here ➡️ epgencms.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/upload… #EUlaw 2/
The current Parliament has passed 1128 legislative files since it first sat in July 2014.

See statistics here ➡️ europarl.europa.eu/sed/doc/news/c… 3/
Read 8 tweets
Morning! I'm Iain McIver, SPICe's EU researcher. Some reflections on #euco decision to extend the #article50 #Brexit process last night. See #council conclusions for more details data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/X… 1/10
#euco met in its EU27 formation meaning the UK Government was not part of the decision-making process. Instead, the Prime Minister spoke to #euco ahead of its considerations. 2/10
The UK will not now leave the European Union on 12 April. Instead a flexible extension has been granted to 31 October. If the Withdrawal Agreement is ratified before then, the UK will leave the EU at the end of the month in which the Agreement is ratified. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n

You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
Read 92 tweets
Thread:

I doubt the EU-27 will accept the PM’s new 22 May date for the extension of #Article50 #Brexit deadline for at least four reasons:
- They’ve been stung before by #TheresaMay saying she needs “just X weeks”, with that then turning out to be longer
- They know she needs time for the legislation, even if #MV4 gets through #Commons and that there will still be internal opposition to it at that stage
Read 5 tweets
"Deal or #NoDeal, that is the question." opens @MichelBarnier in our Breakfast Policy Briefing on the state of play on #Brexit.
"If the @HouseofCommons does not vote in favor of the agreement:
➡️#NoDeal
or ➡️extension of #Article50." explains @MichelBarnier at our Breakfast Polict Briefing.

"Then it is the responsability of the UK government to choose."
"We already have a deal, the one agreed on in november 2018." reminds @MichelBarnier our attentive audience.

"If the UK still want to leave in an ordely manner, this agreement is the only one." #Brexit
Read 9 tweets
"The [#ECJ] has ruled that a revocation should be "unequivocal & unconditional", suggesting that the ECJ would take a dim view of any attempt to [#RevokeArticle50] & then resubmit it..." But @joannaccherry says we can resubmit if we act in good faith. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Here's a thread with several links to what @joannaccherry has said in the House of Commons about our unilateral sovereign right to #RevokeArticle50 and perhaps to resubmit later if we so choose:
There is a massive irony in this whole question. #Brexit was seen as a way to 'free' a 'subject' UK from the #EU. But #Article50 recognizes that each member state of the EU is an independent state with a sovereign right to decide in its own constitutional way to leave the EU.
Read 7 tweets
THREAD 🧵🤓

We’re on to Round 2 of #IndicativeVotes today so I’ve updated my explainer #IV2

🗳 What are #Brexit Indicative Votes?

🤔 How will the process work?

💡What ideas have been tabled?

⏳ What might happen next?

🚨 Hopefully it’s worth a couple of minutes ☕️ 🚆 🚌
Last week MPs debated alternatives to the Prime Minister’s #Brexit plan.

This happened because MPs backed an idea by Conservative MP & former Minister, Sir Oliver Letwin, to give control of Commons business to backbench MPs so they could put forward their visions for #Brexit
Parliamentary procedure is full of quirks, but giving backbench MPs control of the Commons in this way isn’t the norm.

MPs chose to disapply a Commons rule - Standing Order 14(1) - which says that the Government usually (largely) controls what business is debated in the House.
Read 25 tweets
We have reached the end of the road with this Tory disaster, this quantum of #Brexit created & destroyed by & for Tories, a Frankenstein Brexit which now should tear to pieces the party that made it. Schrödinger's Brexitstein Monster, the movie. But what should @UKLabour do now?
First, it is really important for all of us in every party to know what Brexiters & #TheresaMay hoped we never would know: we were able to trigger this #Brexit attempt to become independent because by the terms of the TEU we were in fact independent & free to use #Article50.
As @joannaccherry has insisted in Parliament (something also said almost in passing by Kenneth Clarke), we can #RevokeArticle50 now to avert a disastrous #NoDealBrexit. That doesn't have to be the end of Brexiter hopes. It gives us the time that we need to reflect & rethink.
Read 12 tweets
The way the government has drafted this Motion to approve the Withdrawal Agreement tomorrow is really nasty.

Text here: theguardian.com/politics/blog/…
It's designed narrowly to fulfil the European Council's criteria so as to set 22 May as exit date.

But then the government would just sit on its hands until 12 April, and once that date is passed there would be no way back for UK as it couldn't organise an EP election.
Once you are beyond 12 April, asking for a further extension to the #Article50 period would be a legal nightmare.

So then, after 12 April, May just has to go "It's My Deal or No Deal".
Read 4 tweets
#euco #article50 extension decision was tough but rational. UK now has <3 weeks (until April 12, emergency summit pencilled in for April 10) finally to make up its mind. Parliament must now take control. Options, in diminishing order of *desirability* imho...thread follows./1
1. vote for Kyle-Wilson amendment, accepting her deal subject to 2nd 'confirmatory'referendum, then ask EU for longer extension, agreeing to hold European elections in UK...
2. revoke article 50 and start all over again.../2
3. Cross-party indicative vote majority for Norway Plus finally accepted by government (w/wout PM May), EU agrees to change Political Declaration, unchanged WA & Brexit by May 22
4. ditto, but only for plain vanilla customs union.../3
Read 6 tweets
The EU is focusing down on its choices for #Article50 extension - but that could create a serious potential for a 'no deal' cliff-edge at end of June. Bear with me. 1/Thread

The EU says it will be "legally unstable" if UK doesn't hold elections/have MEPs.

So that means if we want a long extension, we need to commit to hold EP elections on May 23. That means legislating in UK in April.

This cd put some heat on ERG/Brexiteers to back May deal. BUT/2
It could also mean that IF May opts for short extension (to June 30) and we go past that April deadline, then May 23 elctions without participating, then there is NO WAY BACK. Eeek.

Becuase if we get to June 29, and haven't held elections, then (on this basis) that's it. /3
Read 10 tweets
The #Article50 extension conundrum facing the European Union is going to be nasty - whichever way #MV3 breaks next week. Some quick thoughts after chats.

1/Thread
Whichever way the result goes, the likelihood is that it will be close.

A narrow victory.

A narrow loss.

Both are a nightmare for the EU side as they ponder an extension. /2
First, a narrow win.

This falls short of the 'stable majority' EU been demanding and exposes them to the risk it all breaks down after fact.

In that scenario a 3 month extension - for the 'legals' as @simoncoveney - opens door a collapse and an accidental 'no deal' /3
Read 15 tweets
Edmund Burke (1729–97) referred to an 'economy of truth'. That was transmuted by Robert Armstrong (head of the British Civil Service) who spoke of being 'economical with the [valuable] truth'. The genius of our times has been to abandon that cumbersome & limiting truth standard.
We have made a surprisingly smooth transition to lies, the lie standard, & an economy of lies. The scarcity value of truth was fool's gold when compared with the wealth & abundance of lies. What a dark & starkly bleak world that now seems, brightened only by flashes of paradox.
How sad, constricting & wrong Epicurus' follower Lucretius had been: "The energy of intellect won out. The fiery battlements no longer stood as limit to his mind: it now ranged free in time & space, returning soon with trophies of his victory: what things could be or never be."
Read 22 tweets
Days since the #Brexit referendum
9️⃣9️⃣3️⃣

Days since #Article50 triggered
7️⃣1️⃣5️⃣

Days since May agreed the Withdrawal Agreement
1️⃣0️⃣9️⃣
Days to go until #Brexit
1️⃣5️⃣

Hours to go until Brexit
3️⃣6️⃣6️⃣
Solutions in sight
⛔️ No Deal
⛔️ May's Deal
⛔️ #PeoplesVote (for now)
⛔️ General Election (is it even a solution?)
❓Some sort of delay
Read 10 tweets
ON THE BLOG: Following May's #Brexit defeat, Meg Russell and @alanjrenwick explore how long an extension to #Article50 we need, concluding May's suggestion of 2-3 months is not enough.

For various reasons...

THREAD (1/10)

constitution-unit.com/2019/03/12/how…

@uclspp @uclnews @UKandEU
Theresa May has previously suggested that we might ask for a ‘short, limited extension’ to #Article50, which should go ‘not beyond the end of June’. If a #NoDealBrexit is defeated tonight, as widely expected, MPs will vote on an extension on Thursday. (2/10)
But given that trying 'one more heave' to agree May's deal looks unrealistic, more major change is needed - and any such change takes time. First there would be a need to build support for a different kind of deal in Westminster (probably across party lines) and Brussels. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets
This is alarming. In all the ongoing chaos, might we suddenly find #Article50 mysteriously revoked at the last minute? Why would the UKIPGraph publish an op-ed "We're heading for the great Brexit trap - so why not stay in and wreck the EU instead?" telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2019/0…
Check out the last 3 paragraphs 😱 There was another with a similar suggestion, again in the Daily Telegraph recently, which I will try to hunt out and post later. Also BoJo said " ... we may as well stay in" in a speech in New Delhi, in the last few days.
And Farage has announced he will run as an MEP as (his) new Brexit Party candidate "if #Article50 is delayed". Maybe the inexplicable #GammonballRun is just his excuse for a series of Trump-style rallies, to his base?
Read 11 tweets
A #Brexit extension is “almost inevitable”
- Nicola Sturgeon to me earlier @FRANCE24

Scottish First Minister wants Labour’s Corbyn to
“get off the Brexit fence & put his weight behind [...] something that would break the deadlock”
#Scotland #SNP #F24
2/ Sturgeon on Theresa May:

“she should change her approach... 1st thing she should do is request an extension to #Article50

“My preference then would be...to go back to the people in another referendum- bcs people have so much more information now than in 2016”#Brexit #F24
3/
Nicola Sturgeon accuses both Theresa May & Jeremy Corbyn of
“probably trying to run the clock down as much as [each other] in all this.”
#Brexit #Article50 #PeoplesVote #F24 🇬🇧🇪🇺
Read 7 tweets
Please, can we just take a shortcut to the end of this never-ending Brexit cycle?

🛑 sending May or Ministers to Brussels to get something or other
🛑 the idea that the Withdrawal Agreement can be opened
🛑 the delusion that the Backstop can be changed

None of that works
The fundamentals are clear by now.

OPT1️⃣- No Deal Brexit
Who wants it?
A few dozen Tory crazies

Can they get it?
It's the default, but probably not - there's no majority for it in the Commons

Is it sensible?
No
OPT2️⃣- May's Brexit Deal (Hard Brexit)
Who wants it?
A rump of Tories in the middle of that party

Can they get it?
No. It lost by 230 votes. Minor amendments to it aren't going to be enough, &🇪🇺won't change Withdrawal Agreement

Sensible?
It's messy, but less bad than No Deal
Read 10 tweets
The German government on Wednesday nearly halved its 2019 economic growth forecast from 1.8% to 1%, citing #Brexit as the first among key reasons for the slowdown. The shock of no-deal Brexit is widely expected to cause a recession here and elsewhere.
The German minister for econ affairs @peteraltmaier said today that it is not really possible to prepare for a no-deal #Brexit in some sectors, also due to currency fluctuations etc
So the idea that the #EU is united in some sort of stoic view on no-deal #Brexit as highly manageable is not correct. In fact Chancellor #Merkel has spoken to Ireland's Varadkar about his intentions. Top politicians/officials here say it would be good if Ireland would reconsider
Read 7 tweets

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