Thread by @koreanforeigner

I was born and raised in Brunei, and I lived there until I was 19. So believe me when I tell you that I know a thing or two about that country. So let me begin by explaining why boycotting a few luxury hotels won't help achieve anything.

This thread won't have a happy ending.

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1111641015335698433

Brunei has been exporting oil and natural gas since the 1930s, and it produces about 200,000 barrels of oil per day. It's also one of the largest exporters of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).

imf.org/external/pubs/…

Brunei uses little of that oil domestically. It has a tiny population of less than 450,000 people. It's industries are negligible. Although it has been trying to diversify its economy for decades, it has failed. So oil is its biggest industry and most of the oil is exported.

Where does Brunei export most of its LNG to? The vast majority of it goes to other ASEAN member states, Japan, and the US. In fact, Japan imports most of its petro products from Brunei. Due to having spent decades exporting oil and gas, the Brunei Royal Family is worth billions.

The Sultan of Brunei alone is estimated to be worth US$20 billion. Brunei's sovereign wealth fund - the Brunei Investment Agency - is estimated to be worth another US$40 billion.

time.com/3904003/riches…

Also, although the BIA is technically government money, for all intents and purposes, the BIA and the royal family's money have always been one and the same. So some fancy hotels belong to the Brunei Royal Family, and George Clooney won't spend money there? It's almost laughable.

The Royal Family didn't get into the hotel business to make money. They bought the hotels for 3 main reasons. 1) They wanted a place for the royals to crash when they went traveling, 2) It was a vanity project, and 3) Because they could.

The Royal Family is also well protected.

And I don't just mean by the Royal Brunei Police Department or the Royal Brunei Armed Forces. There's another army in that country, and it has been there for decades. And that is the British Army.

army.mod.uk/deployments/br…

Back in late 1962, there was an insurrection in Brunei. Some political factions opposed the monarchy. Using weapons that were provided by Indonesia, the rebels attacked government buildings and oil pipelines. Unfortunately for the rebels, at the time, Brunei was a British colony.

The British weren't keen on the rebels. They were too close to Indonesia's left-wing President Sukarno. Plus, by keeping Brunei's Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddin, the current Sultan's late father, on their good side, the British would have a friend they could count on. The rebels lost.

The British troops have not left since then. And though I say British, they're actually an infantry battalion of Gurkhas. If you've never heard of Gurkhas, let me put it this way. Never get in a fight with a Gurkha. It'll be the last thing you ever do.

bbc.com/news/uk-107820…

So why are the Gurkhas still there? 1) The Sultan wants them there. Their deployment is up for renegotiation every 5 years. And the Sultan keeps asking them to stay. And 2) It's the UK's last garrison in the Far East, and it wants to counter China's rise.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-uk-in-the-…

So, in short, boycotting some hotels won't change anything in Brunei because:
1) it has billions of dollars worth of oil money,
2) the Royal Family is connected with the rich and powerful in every country in the world,
3) it's geopolitically valuable to other powerful nations.

So would some kind of information war to educate Bruneians work as an alternative plan? Well, if you thought that, go back to the drawing board. Bruneians aren't stupid. After the 1962 insurrection, the Sultan declared a state of emergency, and it has not been lifted since.

So, yes, Brunei is ruled by an absolute monarch with dictatorial powers. But if other dictators like Saddam Hussein had a brutal iron fist, the Bruneian Sultan's fist is also made of iron, but draped with fine silk. What that means is that in exchange for dictatorial powers...

the Sultan provides the people with certain comforts. Those comforts include: public housing, free education, practically free health care, very minimal to no taxes, government jobs, subsidized food, and pension straight from the government's coffers.

virtual-bruneidarussalam.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-we…

So, naturally, although the Sultan of Brunei has accumulated more power and more wealth, and he and his brothers and their children literally had harems, he pacified the people by making their lives incredibly comfortable.

nypost.com/2014/05/10/ins…

So why now? Why all these jacked up sharia laws now when the Sultan of Brunei was also nicknamed the Sultan of Swing by people in the know about his less than devout habits? There are several factors at play.

1) Brunei's natural resources are dwindling. Oil is running out, its falling prices are returning lower profits, and the younger generation of Bruneians know they aren't going to get the same kinds of benefits as their parents and grandparents got.

2) The people of Brunei are not rubes. They enjoy high speed unrestricted Internet and are well educated. A large number of educated people who know they won't get the same benefits as their parents tend to get angsty.

freedom.ilaw.or.th/en/blog/southe…

3) There's a lot of uncertainty in the air. Due to dwindling natural resources, unemployment, and growing dissent, Brunei has had to agree to something it has long resisted against - Chinese investments. And this is upsetting people.

scmp.com/news/china/dip…

In other words, Brunei is using this jacked up Sharia Law to quash dissent and consolidate power to ensure that the Sultan keeps getting to sit on his throne. So, no, this isn't about religion. It's about power.

So what can the rest of the world do? Honestly? Nothing.

Unless people figure out how to bankrupt a multi-billionaire king who is protected by the British Army and supported by a population who are (for now) barely content with the status quo, there isn't a damned thing anyone can do. I know that's not what people want to hear.

People want simple bite-sized solutions. A rousing speech given at the end of every sports movie that will lead to victory. But the thing is that in real life, there isn't always an easy solution. Sometimes, there's just nothing that can be done. This is one of those times.

So boycott the Dorchester or the Beverly Hills hotels if it helps you feel better. Just know that that is all that you're going to achieve.

I told you this thread won't have a happy ending.

Bonus tweet: Here's another reason why Clooney's boycott won't work. This isn't the first time Hollywood celebrities launched a boycott against Brunei-owned hotels. It didn't work then, and it won't work now.

bbc.com/news/world-us-…

Additional tweets: I received this tweet from a person distraught about how Brunei's new laws would affect LGBTQ people there.

https://twitter.com/diskdrive/status/1111922656729796609?s=19

I want to start out by saying that I have nothing but sympathy for members of the LGBTQ community all around the world. But I think that we need to be more aware of Sharia Law and how it is not uniformly carried out. It's different from country to country.

While it is true that Brunei has always had the death penalty - death by hanging for crimes unrelated to Islamic laws and stoning for those that are related - Brunei has not executed anyone since gaining independence in 1984.

Not every Muslim country is Saudi Arabia or Pakistan.

Yes, the law will still drive people underground and keep them deep in the closet. This will lead to psychological, mental, and spiritual degradation. It will lead to heartache, self loathing, self-censorship, and humiliation. The law will be used to consolidate power.

But unless Brunei has fundamentally changed in the last 15 years, I find it hard to believe that anyone will actually be put to death.

The country and population are so small that practically everyone is either related to each other or someone's friend.

Abuse of power, corruption, and hypocrisy should always be called out. But I think it's important for us to occasionally realize that we need to check our biases.

I just said that we need to check our own biases. The same applies to me. Pakistan doesn't stone people either.

https://twitter.com/BinaShah/status/1111930597860089857?s=19

Seeing how this thread is still gaining people's attention, I'd appreciate it if readers shared this short thread as well. While protecting LGBTQ rights is important, some people are suggesting dangerous solutions.

https://twitter.com/koreanforeigner/status/1114110172652167168?s=19