Thread by @granleese

Many commentators are dismissing the ALP 2030 goal of EVs being 50% of new cars sold.. you need to understand the wave of R&D, product dev and manufacturing started years ago and the market is about to be flooded with EVs. #auspol

This isn’t a theoretical scenario. 50% is likely to be seen as a modest target in decades time.

Up until last year EVs were mostly a luxury niche or weird ahead of their time concepts (think: Tesla, BMW i8, Mitsubishi I-MIEV) - but factories around the world of mass market car companies have been busy engineering and manufacturing the next generation of mainstream cars.

New models out this year are already targeting mid-market AUD$45k-$50K range:
Hyundai lONIQ
Kia e-Niro
Kia Soul
Nissan Leaf
Renault Zoe
+
~$60K Tesla Model 3
~$60K Hyundai Kona Electric

Remember that electric car prices in 2019 will halve in real terms by 2030. Combustion engine cars in Australia typically took 20 years to half in price but this affordability has accelerated recently and most innovation and manufacturing effeciencies in EVs is yet to come.

Hyundai and Kia in particular are now launching a string of EVs. For those playing at home the Chaebol is headed towards 20% share of all new car sales in Oz within the next 24 months. Australians love Korean cars! 🇰🇷🇦🇺

Heard of a little company called Toyota? They have 20% sales share in Australia.

Toyota Australia is targeting 20% of its total Australian sales from Electric Hybrids in the next couple years. Due to their sheer size, this will alone account for 4% of total national car sales.

This is 2019. In 2020/2021.. we will see entrants from Mazda, Volkswagen, Honda, Peugeot.. and simultaneously commercial vans will begin to be electrified en masse as fleets start upgrading and choosing EV over combustion.

Oh, and the luxury brands, which are mostly made in EU, will all have electric ranges within next 3 years due to tightening of emissions laws in Europe and driver interest from the uniqueness of the EV product. Volvo’s Polestar has sold out ahead of official launch.

The biggest question left is how long it will take for public charging station networks to reach critical mass. Most EV charging will always occur at home (a massive convenience), but public stations are needed on major roads, parking basements, shopping centres, car dealerships.

This is happening slowly but surely, and likely to accelerate as car supply hits critical mass in next 3 years.

I’m excited about the future of EVs and whilst they are the inevitable majority, we need regulation (via targets) to ensure a smooth transition for owners, businesses and industry.