,
12 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
Here's how the brain consumes numbers. Someone puts out a number that proves that the US health care system is worse than any country in Europe, or 40% of the American people live paycheck to paycheck or hate crimes go up 226% in counties where Trump gives a speech. These...
are all examples I've commented on in the last few days. My point is a simple one. Usually these numbers are the result of either complex calculations or very particular assumptions. They aren't the same as facts. But your brain...
struggles to tell the difference. It thinks it's read a fact. Sure sometimes this is confirmation bias. But sometimes it's just hard to avoid your brain reading it like a fact. It's a number and your brain want to treat it like a fact. I point this out and people respond by...
saying, oh come on. You're biased. You just don't like the conclusion. Maybe the number is true! How can you complain about the number if you haven't read the underlying analysis? Because I know how the game is played...
The numbers are usually created to make news. To scare you. To rile you up. To get you to click through. And I know how many assumptions people have to make to get at some of these numbers--the things they can't control for or the opportunities they have ...
to make the number come out the way they want. But then you go and actually check. As @p_millerd did here:
and what do people say then? They say...
and what do people say then? They say...
Oh, so maybe the number's only 20% who live paycheck to paycheck! That's not a problem?!?! Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. My point is that the 40% is designed to rile you up and it did. Or the health care number--the US has the worst health care system! I've looked at numbers...
like this often. Not only do you get to decide what goes into the index, you can weight things differently too. There are plenty of ways to weight the components so the US wouldn't be last. But when I point out that the numbers subjective and unscientific, people respond...
by saying. Oh, c'mon, are you saying the US health care system is efficient?!?! Of course it's not. I've said so many times in print and on EconTalk. But the goofy made up index that "proves" the US is worse than Europe isn't why it's inefficient. I knew that already...
All the number does is make you rage against the stupidity. And yes, it's stupid. But there are many things about the US system that are better than various European systems. That's all missing. The number gets in your head if you're not careful and you ignore all that...
If you're going to pretend to use science to justify your opinions, use good science. Not bad science. I'm trying to make the point that the numbers we often invoke to prove things are the way they are, are often wildly inaccurate. If your diagnosis is wrong, you're cure..
is likely to be also.
