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Meanwhile, a report very few people have read: the official assessment of Nafat 2.0, I mean the Village People agreement, I mean the USMCA, is very peculiar 1/
The report concludes that the USMCA produces a small net gain for the US; but that gain is entirely due to the assumption that the agreement reduces uncertainty. Without that, it's a net negative. 2/ 
So does the USMCA actually reduce uncertainty? That's far from clear. As @ChadBown says, it introduces a big new source of uncertainty in the form of sunset clauses -- unlike NAFTA, stuff needs to be renewed – which isn't taken into account in report 3/
Beyond that, Trump is in general introducing a lot of uncertainty regarding future trade policy – deliberately, bc he thinks that gives him leverage. But if uncertainty has large costs, this means that overall Trump position hurts us 4/ nytimes.com/2019/04/15/us/…
In other words, you can't simultaneously believe that USMCA is net beneficial and that overall Trump trade policy is good for America. If uncertainty matters, it matters. 5/
