,
3 tweets,
1 min read
Read on Twitter
Even though I think that Trump's trade policy is foolish, I don't really understand the apocalyptic numbers some people are throwing around. Last year imports from China were 2.3% of GDP. A 25% tariff would be a tax increase of roughly 0.5% of GDP 1/
That's much less than Trump's fiscal expansion. So why would it be hugely contractionary? People often act as if there's something magically significant about trade policy, but they shouldn't. 2/ 
The really big impacts of a trade war would be on smaller countries caught in the crossfire, and some groups within the US. Also lasting damage to US credibility. But a global recession, not so much. 3/
