, 9 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
So I suggest you read this buzzfeednews.com/article/bensmi…. It's an interesting theory and may be right. But let me give you a few reasons I am not sure. I write online, do podcasts, do tv, etc... Let's start with Buttigieg... I'm gonna post this Google trend chart.
What the chart I think pretty clearly indicates, Buttigieg's breakout moment was a televised townhall. It was only after this appearance on old media did search interest actually go up for him online.
The story hits on Donald Trump's fandom... True he certainly has his fans... but I really believe the old media helped... He received a TON of free old media (fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-d…). You couldn't turn on tv in 2015 without season a rally.
One little note on Trump: I remember GOP aides for other candidates infuriated with this coverage after 2016 all played out. They certainly thought it played a big role.
As for Bernie Sanders, I've developed a bearish reputation on him. He could definitely win. And his ability to organize online would definitely play a big role in that win... But he probably won't win, unless he can expand. (fivethirtyeight.com/features/berni…)
Now the piece mentions polling and how Trump has led in almost all the polling from July 2015 onward. That is, very true. And folks like me waited waaaaaaay too long to acknowledge that fact 4 years ago. Not a mistake I'll make again....
And with that in mind, Biden, who beyond the memes, doesn't have the same online following as some other Democrats. He does however have a consistent polling advantage. Will that hold? IDK. History suggests it most likely won't, but still has a shot of doing so.
But my own (perhaps faulty) belief is that the online fandom theory may breakdown when you're getting large age gaps such as this imgur.com/a/GqQSsGb... Of course, most Dem voters are GenX or older. They're also most likely not to advocate online.
I tend to think the way we consume politics is in a lot flux... IDK the answers. I'm keeping my eye on a slew of factors (polls, money, endorsements, and yes media). We'll see how it plays out. 9 months is an eternity.
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