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I've been typing up a storm in regards to our latest poll on the Dem primary, which has Biden at 39% and Sanders at 15%. Here are some of those posts... cnn.com/politics/live-…
First, we have a clear racial divide within the Dem electorate. Biden's doing 21 points among better w/ nonwhite Democrats than white Democrats in our poll. Prior polls showed Biden doing very well w/ black voters, a power center in the party. cnn.com/politics/live-…
One of the reasons women did so well last year in Dem primaries is that women voted for women candidates. (Clinton too benefitted from a gender gap in 2016.) In our poll, there is no gender gap, however. Women back Biden for now. cnn.com/politics/live-…
This one I think really points out the bubble that is Twitter. I keep hearing that Biden voters aren't enthusiastic. Well our poll found that his voters were actually just as enthusiastic as everyone else's. That is really revved up to vote in 2020. cnn.com/politics/live-…
This poll is a warning sign for Buttigieg. Yes, he's up from our last poll, but he's actually slightly lower from Monmouth earlier this month. He's getting basically no support from moderates, those making less than 50k or nonwhites. cnn.com/politics/live-…
O'Rourke and Harris have come very much down to Earth. They dropped over 5 points from our last poll. This matches other data suggesting whatever momentum they have has gone the way of the Dodo for now. cnn.com/politics/live-…
Turning to the general election for a moment, record turnout seems likely. More voters say they are enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than in any poll ever done in any cycle by CNN since 2003. This comes on the heels of record turnout in 2018. cnn.com/politics/live-…
More on general, Biden's net favs have dropped w/ all voters to +10 pts. That's down 17 pts from Dec 2018. Not a big shocker as he reenters politics. He's still most liked Dem by far. BUT(!) if he falls further, will his electability argument hold w/ Dems? cnn.com/politics/live-…
Back to the primary and the gender gap, as our great polling director @jennagiesta points out to me, women are more satisfied (85%) than men (74%) with the Dem field. Suggests, perhaps, that women are happy many women are running even if they aren't choosing them right now.
On issues, one thing that we found (similar to Monmouth) is more Democratic voters are saying climate change is top issue than ever before. An amazing 96% said it was at least very impt. IDK if it does anything for Islee, but still. cnn.com/politics/live-…
Also, let's congratulate Eric Swalwell for qualifying for the June debates. Our poll was the third with him hitting 1%! It's also the first to give Marianne Williamson 1%. She's now 2 polls away from hitting the polling threshold. cnn.com/politics/live-…
Elizabeth Warren didn't catch fire in our poll. Just at 8%. But you know what she isn't falling either. She's consistently stayed in the top 5 candidates. Maybe, eventually she'll have a breakout moment for voters. Everyone loves a comeback story. cnn.com/politics/live-…
There are a lot of Democrats who want to go after Biden's record. I've been skeptical of that line of attack for a number of reasons... Now our poll does find that about 50% say they don't know a lot about Biden's Senate record, but there's a catch...
Biden voters are actually 17 points MORE likely to say they know about his record than those who are choosing other candidates. That is, there's not much of a sign right now that people will change their mind on him once they learn more. cnn.com/politics/live-…
Final point: I wrote a few weeks ago how "The Democratic electorate is older, more moderate and less educated than you think". That's on full display in this poll. What I call the hidden Democratic Party is powering Biden's big advantage. cnn.com/politics/live-…
Age: Among those under 50, Biden's up by just 11 points. Among those age 50+, he's got a 37 point(!) advantage. A slight majority of Dems are 50+. cnn.com/politics/live-…
Ideology: Biden and Sanders are about even among "very liberals", but they are a minority. Biden gains as you go to somewhat liberal and then moderate/conservatives. He's up by more than 30 pts among moderates/conservatives. cnn.com/politics/live-…
Education: Biden's up only 11 points among Dems w/ a coll degree. (He's even weaker than that w/ postgrads.) He's up by 31 among those w/o a college degree. (He's even stronger among those who never attended college). Non-college Dems are the majority. cnn.com/politics/live-…
