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Let’s talk Venezuela.
Background: The argument in Venezuela essentially boils down to this: there are two people who believe they are the legitimate President of the country.
Let’s talk Venezuela.
Background: The argument in Venezuela essentially boils down to this: there are two people who believe they are the legitimate President of the country.
The players involved in this drama are Nicolas Maduro, the incumbent president who was “reelected” in May 2018, and the leader of the Maduro opposition, Juan Guaido.
Guaido is the leader of the National Assembly (essentially Venezuela’s Congress) and claims Maduro cheated to win reelection, making him (Guaido) the rightful President under their constitution.
The United States agrees with Guaido and officially recognized him as the rightful President of Venezuela. Maduro, like anyone who has ever rigged an election ever, says that’s false and he isn’t giving up power.
In January, Washington escalated the tension by announcing a sweeping sanctions package aimed at weakening Maduro’s hold on the country. Petroleos de Venezuela (PdVSA) is a state-owned oil and gas company that is a massive part of Venezuela’s economy, and Maduro’s claim to power.
As Maduro’s public support has waned, he has grown into a widely unpopular authoritarian leader. He reportedly uses money from PdVSA to pay cronies and maintain loyalty, including giving top military members stake in the company.
It’s hard for some Americans to grasp, because the peaceful transfer of power has been our standard for a long, long time. In Venezuela, as in many countries around the globe, the military is the kingmaker.
If Maduro is able to continue to provide funds to his thugs, and keep the pockets of the top military brass lined with profit, his position of power is relatively secure.
Today, the tinderbox finally seems to have fully ignited when Guaido called for a military uprising to oust Maduro.
Guaido is already recognized by over 50 countries as the legitimate President of Venezuela, but this move is still risky.
Guaido is already recognized by over 50 countries as the legitimate President of Venezuela, but this move is still risky.
To be clear, Maduro needs to go, but if this move by Guaido fails, he risks losing the support he has, and further emboldening Maduro.
That would likely lead to an intervention on behalf of the United States and some of our allies.
That would likely lead to an intervention on behalf of the United States and some of our allies.
Guaido has also had his parliamentary immunity stripped, so he’s at risk of being arrested, or worse.
