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This 👇🏾. Absolutely.
Actually, a bit more than “both”.
Some thoughts on what the English local elections might actually tell us. (NI is different, and results aren’t out yet). A thread.
1/10
Actually, a bit more than “both”.
Some thoughts on what the English local elections might actually tell us. (NI is different, and results aren’t out yet). A thread.
1/10
The vote against Tories & Labour may ➡️2 different/overlapping frustrations about Brexit:
1. Brexit hasn’t happened—mainly among committed Brexiters
2. Politicians are making a mess of it—including from people who don’t have strong feelings either way, just want to move on
2/10
1. Brexit hasn’t happened—mainly among committed Brexiters
2. Politicians are making a mess of it—including from people who don’t have strong feelings either way, just want to move on
2/10
It’s important to distinguish between the two. Type 2 frustration (impatience about incompetence) says nothing about the kind of Brexit and could even be remedied with “Remain” or any form of soft Brexit so long as it was decisive.
3/10
3/10
Nevertheless, there is evidence that a lot of Leavers were fed up with the failure to deliver Brexit and many said they would not vote. Since the turnout was low and these were local government elections, we can’t draw safe conclusions about those who did not vote.
4/10
4/10
Looking at the actual votes: the *change* in councils & councillors looks like a vote for “remain” because the major gainers are LibDems & Greens, both specifically remain. Even so, the message is not unambiguously “remain”.
5/10
bbc.com/news/uk-politi…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Unit…
5/10
bbc.com/news/uk-politi…
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Unit…
LibDems say they won votes from some Leavers fed up with the two big parties. A clear Brexit position helped; it didn’t matter because these were local elections.
Reasons for swings? Remainers voting for remain parties, Leavers voting for them despite Brexit, local issues.
6/10
Reasons for swings? Remainers voting for remain parties, Leavers voting for them despite Brexit, local issues.
6/10
Note the large number of gains for “others” including independents. By definition these are difficult to categorise in terms of votes for Leave or Remain. In many cases Brexit might have been irrelevant.
7/10
7/10
But if we look at the actual numbers of elected councils and councillors, the two main parties still dominate. They did horrendously badly, but they still lead, just about.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Unit…
8/10
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Unit…
8/10
One outcome that does seem pretty clear is the decline of the UKIP brand. The European Parliament elections will show to what extent this has been because of Farage’s followers moving to his party. Change UK will also be tested.
9/10
9/10
In other words, the picture is pretty mixed.
So when Theresa May says the result shows Brexit must be delivered quickly, that might be true of some of the voters her Tory party is shedding, but certainly not the electorate. When Jeremy Corbin says it, who knows?
10/10
So when Theresa May says the result shows Brexit must be delivered quickly, that might be true of some of the voters her Tory party is shedding, but certainly not the electorate. When Jeremy Corbin says it, who knows?
10/10
