Thread by @spreadsheetben

Thread of thoughts on this year's local elections, where close to 9,000 seats are up for grabs! 🎉

1) Impact of Brex and ChUK is muted (because they're not, uh, standing candidates) but will likely help the votes of the LDems, Grns and even UKIP. Don't think the Kippers will do as badly as many expect - Lab sources in Lancs worried about them targeting in Hyndburn and Burnley.

2) Postal vote turnout is apparently down on 2011, when these contests can last be compared against without a general election getting in the way. Disaffection is present, both in the word on the ground and in the national polling.

3) Both Lab and Con have a challenge in shoring up their vote. Which party can get their rather unenthusiastic vote out the most? Which of the top two is best placed to stop their vote from flirting with the smaller parties?

4) National voting intentions which feature Brex and ChUK show the Tories behind Labour, which suggest it is their vote that is softer. Regardless, I'd expect that if you exclude these parties Con would either regain the lead or come at least close to level pegging.

5) This, against 2015, would represent a swing to Labour, when these council elections were last held: the same time as a general election where the Tories had a lead in votes of 7pts.

6) So, good news for Lab? Maybe. However, of the 9,000 up today, the LDems once had 1,000 of them, and before going into coalition close to double that, but today they're defending just 600. These wards are fertile ground, and many a forecast expects them to make 400-500 gains.

7) Personally, I'm quietly cynical about the potential for huge LDem gains. Similar forecasts were made in 2017 and 18 and didn't materialise, and their performance in 2011 in winning 1,000 came at a time when they were polling higher than now.

8) But, the arrival and indirect impact of the spoiler parties on the smaller parties should help them regardless. Public opinion is quickly being geared towards the Euro elections. How many voters are taking to the polling stations today thinking they're voting for the Euros?

9) Naturally, once they see their ballot paper they'll realise, but I'd imagine many a voter will be going to the polling booth today with Brexit at the forefront of their mind.

10) I wouldn't rule out that a fall in support for both Lab and Con would actually result in little seat change between them, but it does make the opportunity for gains by smaller parties easier.
Keep more of an eye on vote totals and share changes over seat aggregates.

11) Britain Elects coverage of the results will be found on our site as well as on social media, as we've been doing for the past five years. This is the biggest set of local elections we've ever covered - last year's was 4,500, and today's... 9,000 😫

britainelects.com/results/le2019

12) We're launching a new feature tonight: we've selected 100 key wards to keep an eye on as the results come in. What's important is not who wins them but how the votes change. They'll be helpful in building a clearer view of British politics than sifting through 9,000 of them.