Thread by @DanDePetris

Let’s not beat around the bush: the Trump administration’s Iran policy is fuck*d. It’s wrong from all directions.

Pulling out from the JCPOA was monumentally stupid. If the objective is to prevent Iran from getting a nuke, why leave a deal that helps do exactly that?

The JCPOA is likely dead. Congratulations FDD, you got your wish! But what has the U.S. gotten out of it? Not a damn thing other than a lot of pissed off allies and partners who are scratching their heads and wondering if we’ve gone nuts.

But enough about the JCPOA. What about the administration’s maximum pressure policy? What are the benefits there? Again, nothing. Crimping the Iranian economy is not success. Success would be Iran becoming the “normal nation” we would like it to be (ie do everything we want).

But that isn’t happening either. It’s about as likely to happen as me becoming president. There is no correlation between sanctions pressure and Iranian policy reform. Tehran doesn’t wave the white-flag—it doubles down. You’re not going to bankrupt Iran into submission.

President Bolton, of course, doesn’t give a crap about any of that. His goal—and thus the administration’s goal—is to overthrow the regime either through an internal Iranian revolt or a U.S. mil operation. He thinks Iran is going to create an empire if the ayatollahs don’t leave.

Yet as someone who thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room, Bolton’s hypothesis is idiotic. If he took a moment to stop counting the five-figure checks he has gotten from the MeK, he would see that Iran is hardly the next Soviet Union. It’s a problem the region can handle.

For Trump: act like the president rather than a lackey. Bolton is making you look like a dope. Wake up. Fire the guy or lock him in a room. Look at Iran for what it is: a troublemaker, not a budding Persian Empire. Get advisers who wont undermine you. And reevaluate.