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A few bare-bones thoughts on the upcoming Trump-Kim summit in a week’s time. I feel like I’m beating a dead horse here because people smarter than I have already made these observations, but bear with me.
First, the ugly:
The administration’s diplomatic strategy depends on which official you talk to. Trump says he isn’t in a rush. Biegun says it will be a process involving step-by-step concessions. And a senior admin official (Bolton?) says DC not interested in incrementalism(2).
The administration’s diplomatic strategy depends on which official you talk to. Trump says he isn’t in a rush. Biegun says it will be a process involving step-by-step concessions. And a senior admin official (Bolton?) says DC not interested in incrementalism(2).
All of this mixed messaging not only looks juvenile for those keeping score, but it’s also confusing to the North Koreans. Kim may very well be listening to all of this and wondering whether Biegun is actually speaking for Trump when he talks to his representatives (3)
Eight months in, the U.S. & North Korea are still not working off the same definition of denuclearization. As @ArmsControlWonk has written before, the North has one interpretation & Washington has another. Can these two positions be reconciled? Who the hell knows (4)
The good:
Hanoi, Vietnam could be a dud. But it could also be a momentum builder to something historic. None of us should assume negotiations with Pyongyang will be easy or a grand bargain will be signed. But fortunately, a grand bargain isn’t req for a successful summit (5)
Hanoi, Vietnam could be a dud. But it could also be a momentum builder to something historic. None of us should assume negotiations with Pyongyang will be easy or a grand bargain will be signed. But fortunately, a grand bargain isn’t req for a successful summit (5)
What Trump needs from the summit more than anything is deliverables from the North - whether it be on the nuclear file, the peace file, mil-to-mil confidence-building measures - that insulate the diplomatic process from the naysayers who see it as a wasted effort (6)
I’m not sure what deal is in the works. The most likely is a suspension of bomb production/centrifuge spinning at Yongbyon in exchange for partial sanctions carve-outs & end-of-war declaration. The U.S. probably won’t get a nuke declaration at this stage (7)
Trump and Kim may choose to think smaller by setting out a mutually-agreeable roadmap of what both need to do (and when) to move diplomacy to the finish line. There are a number of possibilities; I’m sure Biegun is tearing his hair out trying to find one that sticks (8)
Whatever happens at the summit, I doubt it’s the make-or-break moment so many assume. Trump is personally invested in this process, which means he will attempt to keep it alive. Kim is invested too. And let’s not forget Moon.
Diplomacy will continue post-Hanoi (9)
Diplomacy will continue post-Hanoi (9)
