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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
How to place US-China trade war in historical context? Transpacific integration will slow, critical links will disappear (no decoupling, but some reassertion of control). Eurasian integration will deepen
And the two processes are linked. We will see stronger economic impact from China in Europe as a direct result of US-China trade war.
As for slowing US-China economic integration it could actually be stabilizing for relations between the two countries. If tariffs stay in place indefinitely, more difficult for US politician to blame China for US economic woes, for example
I would like to know what EU decision makers are modeling. US tariffs could have enormous diversionary impact on Chinese exports, with bigger flows at cheaper prices hitting EU markets soon. Response with TDI? Or?
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
How should the US manage Russia? After a week of interesting conversations in Russia: trust is irreparably broken and Russia has become toxic in American politics, but surely pushing it towards China is not smart politics for the US. How to square that circle?
In other words: a smarter strategy would consist of finding a role for Russia in the Eurasian balance of power while preserving the ability to force it to respect that balance. But is there anyone in US politics let alone in the administration defending this strategy?
Brzezinski by the way is uncharacteristically undiscerning on this question
Read 3 tweets
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
Since it became a world power around 1900 US had a single, permanent strategic goal: prevent a single power from controlling the whole of Eurasia
Interestingly the first half century the danger came from Europe. Thus the US actively prevented European powers from gobbling up China. And then it allied itself with the Soviet Union to prevent Nazi Germany from controlling Ukraine, the Caucasus and ultimately India
The second half century the danger was Russia. Thus the US built up Europe and China as bulwarks against the Soviet Union
Read 4 tweets
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Bruno Maçães
@MacaesBruno
Do people still remember when and why people like Wilders, Le Pen, Strache, Orban began to be called populists? The term “radicals” would be much more accurate
What unites them is the desire to overturn the ruling values, which we may call late Western liberal values. On immigration, multiculturalism, world politics even architecture as with the Dutch gentleman whose name I momentarily forget
In Europe I continue to argue they have limited room. But outside Europe it’s a different game. Erdogan succeeded spectacularly in doing that, before everyone else. Congress in India is already moving. That value constellation is becoming more parochial
Read 5 tweets

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