Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #boe

Most recents (24)

Has #Sunak really lost £11bn in a 'debt blunder'?

This is complicated, but for once I'm going to side with the Treasury here... 🤓

Three key points:

1. The Treasury would have had to order the #BoE to force commercial banks to swap reserves for gilts - not a good look...
2, The Treasury would have had to get the timing just right to save £11 billion, and done so while issuing huge amounts of new gilts without disrupting the market, or influencing interest rate expectations. Not realistic.

Indeed, this strategy could easily have lost money...
3. The 'insurance' proposed by @NIESRorg would also only have been temporary, because it would replace reserves with short-dated (1-2 year) gilts.

Looking further out, the average maturity of UK gov't debt is already relatively long - for which the DMO deserves more credit.
Read 3 tweets
Con gusto. New links to observe how the Arctic sea ice (#BOE) and Greenland ice sheet (#GIS) export fresh cold water to the Atlantic. How long until the AMOC tips and shuts down, accelerating warming and sea level rise?…
Hansen 2016…
Monsoons. Note what mental contortions the authors perform under the absurd @Peters_Glen @hausfath @MLiebreich crusade against #RCP85. Have we stopped this nonsense yet?…

@climate_ice, is GIS subglacial methane cycling accelerating?…
@Peters_Glen @hausfath @MLiebreich @climate_ice This really isn't hard. Please focus and do science that matters if you can. We need your support.
Read 5 tweets
BoE votes 8-1 to raise rates by 25 bps to 0.75% comparable to pre-pandemic level.
BoE's Cunliffe backs no change to rates. #BoE $GBP
UK bonds gain after BoE; 10-year yield falls 7bps to 1.56%. #BoE $GBP
Read 5 tweets
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore, @cnbcKaren & the #SquawkBox team for having me on this morning's show.

We discussed #bonds & #centralbanks, touched on #supplychains & talked of #Growth's vulnerability, #commodities' appeal.

Slide deck follows:-

Is your box still backed up in port? How much does the onward haulage cost? What happens to #freight rates after #LNY/#Beijing2022?
The bet is that #energy cannot *possibly* rise as far and fast this year as last, but what about all the other inputs? To what extent are these and other costs yet to be passed on?


Read 15 tweets
Hoy se ha publicado la #ReformaLaboral en el #BOE. Os contamos los puntos más importantes 👉…
1⃣ La norma elimina el contrato por obra y servicio, pero mantiene dos tipos de contratos temporales

2⃣ Quien acumule más de 18 meses sobre 24 de contratos temporales pasará a ser indefinido

3⃣ Como hasta ahora, el contrato por defecto es el indefinido…
4⃣ El convenio de empresa tiene prioridad sobre el sectorial, como desde la última reforma, excepto para los salarios

5⃣ Es decir, se prioriza el convenio de empresa para el pago de horas extra, los horarios, las vacaciones o las medidas de conciliación…
Read 11 tweets
Zor geçeceğini söylediğim hafta Türk lirası için stresli bir şekilde başladı bile. 😔

Zaten birçok yerde yazıldı, ama bu haftaya ilişkin dikkatimi çeken gelişmelerin başlıklarını kısaca yer vereyim.

1) 20'ye yakın merkez bankası toplantısı bizleri bekliyor. Önemli olanlar:
2) #FED toplantısı için beklenti çok önceden oluşmuştu zaten. Daha sert hatta öncekilerden farklı bir enflasyon söylemi ve varlık alımlarında artış bekliyorum.

#ECB açısından merkez ve çevredeki farkların artması sıkıntı yaratmaya başlayacaktır artık.

#BOE ise erteleyecek gibi.
3) #Omicron varyantı için sonuçların gelmesinin en az iki hafta süreceğini düşünüyordum ve yaklaşan tatil sezonu öncesi risk algısı daha yüksek olduğu için piyasalar biraz daha satış ağırlıklı hareket edebilir yönünde görüşler var.
Read 9 tweets
The IHS Markit/CIPS flash UK #PMI rose from 54.9 in Sep to 56.8 in Oct, indicating the fastest expansion of the economy since July.

That's above the pre-pandemic survey average of 54.0 and indicative of roughly 0.7% q/q #GDP growth.
UK growth is looking increasingly lop-sided, however, with the upturn led by the services sector, and consumer-facing and hospitality firms in particular driving the expansion for a third month running. In contrast, manufacturing saw production growth slide to near-stagnation.
While the service sector continued to benefit from the opening up of the economy, factories have been besieged by a further worsening of supply chain delays and ongoing staffing issues, as well as falling exports and what appears to have been diversion of spend toward services.
Read 14 tweets
Lets play a little game.......what you see is the UK y/y house price change. We going to guess what happened from macro-standpoint around these 4 turning points in house price trend....who wants to play? #trading #economics Image
Point 1: #BOE increases there QE programme by additional 50bn and signals more easing to come in pipeline in order to ensure inflation doesn't drop below 2% Image
Point 2: #Carney surprises the markets turning hawkish. But note , house prices were up 11% in the prior year and #BOE was getting nervous about a big old bubble!!! ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Rabobank 1/8: #CFTC #CommitmentofTraders Report:
Net #USD short positions were little changed last week though a modest increase was recorded. Net shorts remain near recent highs and are therefore not reflecting this year’s improved performance of the USD in the spot market.
Rabobank 2/8: Focus is on the size of the Biden fiscal giveaway and the relative success of vaccine roll-out programmes. Rising inflation expectations appear out of kilter with the Fed’s very cautious tone.
#EUR net longs dropped back sharply. In spot market it appears that
Rabobank 3/8: the EUR is being undermined by the slow vaccine roll-out programme in the EU. This is supporting talk that the region could fall behind in the reflation trade.
Net #GBP long positions edged higher but remain below recent highs.
Read 8 tweets
Who was Hugo Stinnes?

In the early 1920’s in Weimar Germany, Hugo Stinnes became the richest man in Germany earning the title the ‘Inflation King’ How did he do it? Time for a #Thread 🧵 🪡 👇 1/ Image
For reference, whenever I say ‘Inflation King’ 🤴, I am saying the words with a ‘Sausage King of Chicago’ accent from Ferris Buellers day off. 2/ Image
Hugo Stinnes was born in Germany 🇩🇪 in 1870. Stinnes inherited his father’s coal #mining ⛏ business in 1890 at the age of 20. He began to purchase seagoing vessels 🚢 to transport his coal and other materials. 3/ Image
Read 15 tweets
No hay quien pague las cuentas de los abogados en caso del oro en #BoE.
Tribunal de Apelación de Inglaterra ordenó a junta #BCV de Guaidó pagar 522 mil $$ por gastos legales para seguir en el caso.
Seudo presidente del BCV renunció y el resto de la directiva anda desaparecida.
Los abogados de la junta del BCV (que responde al gobierno constitucional de Maduro), el despacho Zaiwalla & Co, advirtieron que el pago debió hacerse antes del 20OCT de 2020. Recordemos que el seudo presidente del BCV, Ricardo Villasmil Bond, renunció el 22AGOS.
De Giacoma Cuius Cortesía -otra integrante del parapeto- no se sabe nada desde su “nombramiento” (se supone por sus RRSS que vive en Italia). Antes, en 2003, siendo vicepresidenta de operaciones internacionales del BCV participó en fraude para robarse quinta en Prados del Este.
Read 6 tweets
[THREAD] According to Bloomberg, Thomas #Jordan - the chairman of the Swiss National Bank (#SNB) - faces questions today from the supervisory board about the allegations published by @swissinfo_de on Sept 2 and the @RepublikMagazin on Sept 24 and Oct 1. Here is what they discuss:
(2/7) On Sept 2, @swissinfo_de documented the high share of men in leading positions at the #SNB (81%; #ECB: 69%, #BoE: 68%, #Fed: 57%). In 84% of all cases since 2000, the SNB promoted men to "director" or "vice director". Out of 28 promotions to director, only 3 were female.
(3/7) In contrast to other major central banks, the #SNB has no targets for the share of women in leading positions (#ECB: 40% by 2026) and for the share of women it wants to promote (#ECB: 50% on all levels). Neither does it have a program to foster gender equality.
Read 8 tweets
NEW: Draft #EU plan to maintain access to #UK clearing houses after #Brexit. @EU_Commission decision will safeguard #EU banks' access to LCH etc for 18 months to June 30, 2022:…. A short thread: 1/
The plans reflect LCH's dominance in clearing euro-denominated derivatives, and stave off financial stability risks at the end of the #Brexit transition period. Both #ECB and #BOE have warned of this: 2/
But the @commission is also clear that it sees the 18-months as a breathing space to deal with that problem by building up the #EU's own clearing capacity and reducing reliance on London: 3/
Read 6 tweets
1/It’s an action-packed week, with three major central bank meetings, the election over who will become Japan’s next leader, and an overload of key economic data. The Fed decision will be crucial (Thu). Image
2/Will the central bank reinforce its new inflation regime by signalling imminent stimulus, or will it sit back until the US election has passed? Neither the Bank of England (Thu) nor the Bank of Japan (Thu) is likely to act.
3/Instead, those currencies may be driven mostly by how the Brexit saga and global risk sentiment evolve.


#GlobalMacroAtaGlance #MacroEconomics #TR2min #ForexTrading #GlobalMacroAnalysis #BoJ #BoE
Read 3 tweets
UK economy slumps 20% in second quarter, unemployment fears mount

Economy shrank by a record 20.4% between April and June, the largest contraction reported by any major economy so far, with a wave of job losses set to hit later in 2020.
#UK #recession…
UK’s dilemma is mass layoffs or addiction to aid

Withdraw support for jobs and wages too soon and tip Britain into an unemployment crisis just as Brexit threaten growth. Some jobs may never return, others will be created post-crisis
#UK #recession… Image
Read 8 tweets
1/ The Bank of England are in the process of overhauling their current Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system ✅

They are preparing for the Best & Final Offer stage ahead of appointing a Technology Delivery Partner in Summer 2020..

Who could the "TDP" be? 🧐

2/ In 2017, the UK Central Banks External Advisory Board said they were exploring the lessons learned from a number of other real-time RTGS implementations..

A highlight was the Scandinavian model for instant payments 🇸🇪🇳🇴

Specifically, a third party approach..

3/ Many Central Banks are turning to 3rd-party providers for their solutions instead of building their own RTGS infrastructure..

✅ Sweden
✅ Denmark
✅ Iceland
✅ Norway
✅ New Zealand

& more across Europe, Africa & ME..

Who provided the infrastructure?

Perago ✅

Read 9 tweets
Oggi LadyLaga...
Il banco chiude...sondaggio e scommesse finite...
che amarezza!!😂😂👽
tra 15 minuti il responso finale! Image
bucata la sogli di 1.40
boscaioli ne abbiamo?👽😂 Image
Read 746 tweets
#RBI cut by 40bps each of these👇
#Repo rate to 4%
#ReverseRepo to 3.35%
#BankRate to 4.25%

Decision was reached after 5:1 vote,with #ChetanGhate,lone voice calling for 25 bps cut

#MPC meet was held ahead of schedule from 3rd-5th,June

#EMI #moratoroum extended by 3 more months
Moratorium extension till 31st August 2020,is both timely &reflective of @narendramodi govt's alacrity--Big relief to #MiddleClass

Measure to convert #moratorium interest payment into #TermLoan payable in FY21,is helpful

This will reduce #NPAs &stress on banks' balance sheets
#RBI's cut in #Repo will reduce cost of funds&extension of #moratorium will be supportive of financial stability;#Rates across #YieldCurve will move lower from current levels

Fall in #ReverseRepo rate will disincentivise banks from #hoarding #liquidity&coax them to lend

Read 10 tweets
Boom, Got Silver? Historic move...

Thank You #ECB #Fed #BOJ #PBOC #BOE
Silver > Gold, the beating continues, or you could say, playing “catch up.”

Silver, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, ....
Read 4 tweets
#MonetaryFinancing #BoE 13 Bank of England tut was ich seit vielen Jahren für #ECB fordere. Die @bankofengland finanziert in Ergänzung zur Emission von Anleihen über Kapitalmärkte direkt Staatsausgaben. @DEhnts @PeterBofinger…
2/3 Dies ist laut EU Verträgen verboten. Es gibt jedoch Umgehungsmöglichkeiten von Art. 123 AEUV über öffentliche Banken. In #Italien formiert sich Widerstand von Ökonomen gegen das Verbot und Kompromisse mit der Bundesregierung. @DEhnts…
3/3 Auch @ecb könnte Staatsfinanzierung via Pandemic Bond Programme machen. Staatsanleihen könnten ohne Auflagen jenseits Kapitalschlüssel - jedoch auf Sekundärmarkt - erworben werden. Dies ist jedoch befristet und danach droht Hammer der Austerität @DEhnts
Read 3 tweets

Abe to Kuroda over breakfast:

"If debt to GDP of 250% didn't work, let us try 300.."

Gold likes the Kuroda MMT afterburners in Japan today... Trend break alert: Image
Read 5 tweets
En este artículo explico las medidas que incluye el estado de alarma desde ya. No está basado ni en los anuncios del presidente ni en el borrador, sino en el decreto firmado y aprobado y publicado en el #BOE. Y hay matices, claro.…
Prefiero que os leáis el artículo, claro (guiño guiño), pero os resumo en este hilo algunas novedades o cosas que no son exactamente como se han contado (oh, sorpresa!). O que creo que necesitan aclaración, porque leo muchas dudas razonables… #BOEextra
Pedro Sánchez dijo que las salidas, de uno en uno. El texto no dice eso. Cuando da la lista de excepciones al veto a quedarse en casa, una es muy abierta: "cualquier otra actividad de análoga naturaleza"...… #BOEextra
Read 11 tweets
Hoy el #BOE lleva una sentencia muy relevante, la que avala que una trabajadora pueda ser despedida por bajas intermitentes aunque sean JUSTIFICADAS. Os la desgrano mientras intento que no me salga fuego por la boca, a ver si me sale ;) Va hilo ⤵️…
El TC tenía que decidir si es constitucional o no el artículo del Estatuto de los Trabajadores que dice que es despido objetivo echar a alguien por ausencias, aunque sean justificadas, de más del 20%. Este punto no aplica a bajas largas (+ de 20 días) o enfermedades graves...
...Pues bien, 8 magistrados dicen que echar a alguien por bajas justificadas de más del 20% sí es constitucional, y así se firma la sentencia. Pero 4 dicen que no (y lo dicen bien enfadados, ahora lo vemos, en sus votos particulares)...
Read 11 tweets
UK economy in worst spell since 2009 as all-sector #PMI signals further contraction. PMI rose from 48.8 in Sep to 49.5 in Oct, but declines have now been recorded in four of the past five months 1/
The Oct PMI indicates GDP q/q rate of fall of -0.1%, similar that signalled by in Q3. Official data are likely to have indicated more robust growth in Q3, the PMI warns that some of this strength reflects a pay-back from a steeper decline than signalled by the surveys in Q2 2/
Manufacturing remains in worst spell since 2012 while construction is in deepest downturn since 2009, with both in recession. Services meanwhile stagnated, improving on the decline seen in September but still suggesting that the sector is stuck in its worst patch since 2012 3/
Read 12 tweets

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