,
15 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
It seems like every day I get asked about the Eddie Gallagher case and every time I reply that I am not going to play barracks lawyer, and I still won't but I'll share some thoughts on the matter. BLUF: I don't know if he is guilty or innocent. More below: 
To summarize, Chief Eddie Gallagher is a SEAL who stands accused of murdering a teenaged detainee in Iraq with a knife. Additional accusations have been made that he shot at civilians intentionally, including children in Mosul. When team mates spoke out, Gallagher is then
alleged to have attempted to retaliate against them in various ways. The Defense counters that Eddie was a tough leader and his men didn't like him putting a boot in their asses in combat so they invented war crimes stories to get rid of him.
A few of my own thoughts on this. There are 15 ways off the top of my head to get rid of a bad leader that do not include going straight to the worst thing possible: inventing war crimes out of whole cloth. Usually the way this played out in the Ranger Regiment or Special Forces
is that the Squad Leaders/Team Leaders go to their Sergeant Major and tell him, "he goes or we go." Basically they stage a coup. It doesn't happen often but it does happen. There a plenty of other ways go to about this as well.
Behind the scenes I've heard many different things from many different people, I'm not going to repeat gossip here, however it is clear to me that both the prosecution and the defense are doing their absolute damndest to try this case in a court of public opinion.
The defense has waged a multi-media campaign using Gallagher's family, in a very clear attempt to get President Trump's attention. And it has worked: Trump moved Gallagher from prison to on-post confinement after his wife complained about it.
Trump also recently pardoned Michael Behenna (convicted of murdering an Iraqi detainee) and has gotten involved in the Matthew Golsteyn case in which a Green Beret is accused of murdering a Afghan and will now go to court martial. These moves play extremely well to Trump's base.
Meanwhile, the prosecution is leaking documents left and right to the press in order to bolster their own case. Fresh accusations and innuendos surrounding this case fly nearly every day, turning it into a three ring circus.
My prediction on how this whole thing goes down: Gallagher gets a not guilty verdict on the murder charges due to lack of evidence. Maybe that evidence doesn't exist because it didn't happen, maybe it was covered up, maybe it is just hard to prove a crime in a war zone...
However, I suspect he will get convicted on lesser charges like obstruction of justice. The court martial date will soon be upon us, but afterwards, I suspect this case is going to be held up in appeals for an additional year or two at least. Meanwhile, the social media campaign
surrounding Gallagher will ramp up even more as appeals stretch out and the Presidential race picks up in earnest. I think Trump will mention Gallagher in speeches throughout his re-election campaign, hyping the trial, a miscarriage of justice, make appeals to patriotism, etc
Trump will absolutely squeeze Gallagher throughout his re-election campaign to garner as much publicity for himself as possible. Gallagher's defense will play along, knowing that a Presidential pardon is a good deal. Then during the 2020 campaign, when the timing suits him
the most, Trump will then issue a presidential pardon for Gallagher which will play extremely well with his base, ostensibly demonstrate pro-military patriotism, and show that he really does care about the little guy. As for Gallagher, I could see a soft landing for him
after the pardon. I don't think him becoming a paid Fox News contributor would be at all out of the question.
